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Subtropical Storm Alberto Graphics
2018-05-28 16:45:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 28 May 2018 14:45:13 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 28 May 2018 14:45:13 GMT
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Subtropical Storm Alberto Forecast Discussion Number 14
2018-05-28 16:44:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon May 28 2018 000 WTNT41 KNHC 281444 TCDAT1 Subtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018 1000 AM CDT Mon May 28 2018 Alberto has struggled to produce significant deep convection since early this morning, however, there are several bands of shallow convection that wrap around the eastern and northern portions of the circulation. The Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft has not found winds as high as last evening, but has reported SFMR winds of 45 to 50 kt which support an initial intensity of 50 kt. The pressure has risen a couple of millibars with data from a recent center dropsonde supporting a minimum pressure of 992 mb. Since the primary convective bands are already moving onshore along the coast of the Florida panhandle, little change in strength is expected through landfall later today. After landfall, Alberto should quickly weaken and become a depression tonight or early Tuesday, then degenerate into a remnant low over the Tennessee Valley in about 36 hours. The latest couple of center fixes from the aircraft show that Alberto has jogged to the east this morning. The longer-term motion, however, is generally northward at about 7 kt. A northward to north-northwestward motion should bring the center onshore in the Florida panhandle this afternoon or evening. After landfall, the system should continue generally northward around the western portion of a mid-level ridge located over the western Atlantic. Before the system is absorbed by a frontal boundary over Canada late in the week, it should turn northeastward ahead of a trough moving through the central United States. The track guidance is in relatively good agreement, and only minor adjustments were needed to the previous NHC track forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall will lead to a significant risk of flash flooding across the Florida Panhandle, much of Alabama, and western Georgia through tonight, spreading northward into northern Georgia, the western Carolinas, and Tennessee on Tuesday. A risk of flooding and flash flooding will continue over central Cuba, the Florida Keys, and southern Florida today. 2. Hazardous storm surge is possible along portions of the eastern Gulf Coast today, including areas well east of the track of Alberto's center. Residents in the storm surge watch area are encouraged to follow guidance given by their local government officials. 3. Tropical storm conditions are likely within portions of the tropical storm warning area today. 4. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will continue to affect portions of the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 29.5N 85.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 30.8N 86.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 29/1200Z 33.0N 86.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 30/0000Z 35.9N 87.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/1200Z 38.9N 87.1W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 31/1200Z 44.9N 84.8W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/1200Z 48.5N 78.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Subtropical Storm Alberto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2018-05-28 16:44:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON MAY 28 2018 000 FONT11 KNHC 281444 PWSAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012018 1500 UTC MON MAY 28 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT TALLAHASSEE FL 34 9 X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ST MARKS FL 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) APALACHICOLA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 290N 850W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PANAMA CITY FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PANAMA CITY FL 50 12 X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 78 X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COLUMBUS GA 34 3 7(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 1 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MONTGOMERY AL 34 5 22(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) WHITING FLD FL 34 20 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) PENSACOLA FL 34 10 X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Subtropical Storm Alberto Forecast Advisory Number 14
2018-05-28 16:44:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON MAY 28 2018 000 WTNT21 KNHC 281443 TCMAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012018 1500 UTC MON MAY 28 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WEST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STORM SURGE WATCH WEST OF MEXICO BEACH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SUWANNEE RIVER TO MEXICO BEACH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SUWANNEE RIVER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 85.8W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 75SE 45SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 85.8W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 86.0W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 30.8N 86.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 33.0N 86.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 35.9N 87.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 38.9N 87.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 44.9N 84.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 48.5N 78.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.5N 85.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Subtropical Storm Alberto (AT1/AL012018)
2018-05-28 16:44:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CENTER OF ALBERTO NEARING THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...RAIN BANDS AND GUSTY WINDS SPREADING ONSHORE... As of 10:00 AM CDT Mon May 28 the center of Alberto was located near 29.5, -85.8 with movement N at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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