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Subtropical Storm Alberto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15

2018-05-28 22:43:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON MAY 28 2018 000 FONT11 KNHC 282043 PWSAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012018 2100 UTC MON MAY 28 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT APALACHICOLA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PANAMA CITY FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) COLUMBUS GA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 1 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) MONTGOMERY AL 34 17 2(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Summary for Subtropical Storm Alberto (AT1/AL012018)

2018-05-28 22:43:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...CENTER OF ALBERTO MAKING LANDFALL NEAR LAGUNA BEACH FLORIDA... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING OVER PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... As of 4:00 PM CDT Mon May 28 the center of Alberto was located near 30.3, -85.9 with movement N at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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Subtropical Storm Alberto Public Advisory Number 15

2018-05-28 22:43:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018 000 WTNT31 KNHC 282043 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Alberto Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018 400 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018 ...CENTER OF ALBERTO MAKING LANDFALL NEAR LAGUNA BEACH FLORIDA... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING OVER PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.3N 85.9W ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM WNW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: All watches and warnings east of the Aucilla River have been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Aucilla River to Mexico Beach A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Aucilla River to the Alabama/Florida border A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto was located near latitude 30.3 North, longitude 85.9 West. The storm is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A faster northward to north-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Alberto will move over Alabama later tonight and Tuesday. The system is forecast to move over the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday and into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region on Wednesday and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady weakening is forecast as Alberto moves inland, and Alberto is expected to become a subtropical depression tonight or early Tuesday, and degenerate into a remnant low by Tuesday afternoon. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The official observing site at Panama City recently reported a sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a gust to 59 mph (95 km/h). An automated weather station near St. Andrew Bay measured a sustained wind of 44 mph (70 km/h) with a gust to 52 mph (83 km/h) within the past couple of hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Tuesday: The Florida panhandle across eastern and central Alabama and western Georgia...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches. The Florida Keys and Florida peninsula...Additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated 5 inches. Rest of the Southeast and Tennessee Valley into the lower mid Atlantic from Tennessee east through the Carolinas...2 to 6 inches. Flooding and flash flooding are possible in the southeast United States, including Florida. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue within portions of the warning area into this evening. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Acuilla River to Mexico Beach...1 to 3 ft A National Ocean Service tide gauge at Apalachicola measured a water level of 2.99 ft above Mean Higher High Water earlier this afternoon. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge- related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible through tonight over parts of Georgia and southeast Alabama. SURF: Swells generated by Alberto will continue to affect the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. For more information, consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Subtropical Storm Alberto Forecast Advisory Number 15

2018-05-28 22:43:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON MAY 28 2018 000 WTNT21 KNHC 282042 TCMAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012018 2100 UTC MON MAY 28 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS EAST OF THE AUCILLA RIVER HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * AUCILLA RIVER TO MEXICO BEACH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * AUCILLA RIVER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 85.9W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 85.9W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 85.9W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 32.0N 86.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 34.3N 87.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 37.0N 87.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 40.1N 86.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 46.2N 82.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.3N 85.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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