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Subtropical Depression Alberto Forecast Discussion Number 16
2018-05-29 04:36:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018 000 WTNT41 KNHC 290236 TCDAT1 Subtropical Depression Alberto Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018 1000 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018 Alberto's circulation continues to move farther inland, and is now centered over southeastern Alabama. Surface synoptic observations indicate that the system has weakened to a 30-kt subtropical depression. Alberto will continue to weaken as it moves over land during the next few days, and the system should degenerate into a remnant low in 24 hours or sooner. The low is forecast to dissipate in 96 hours but some of the guidance, such as the latest run of the GFS, suggests that this event could occur sooner. The depression is moving northward at a somewhat faster pace, or 350/10 kt. The track forecast philosophy has not changed significantly. The cyclone should accelerate north-northwestward to northward around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge to the east and southeast over the next couple of days. After that, the system should turn toward the north-northeast due to the influence of the mid-latitude westerlies. The official track forecast is close to the latest dynamical model consensus, TVCN, and is similar to the previous NHC forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall will lead to a significant risk of flash flooding across the Florida Panhandle, much of Alabama, and western Georgia overnight, spreading northward into northern Georgia, the western Carolinas, and Tennessee on Tuesday. 2. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will continue to affect portions of the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 31.4N 86.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 29/1200Z 32.9N 86.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 30/0000Z 35.6N 87.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 30/1200Z 38.4N 87.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 31/0000Z 41.6N 86.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/0000Z 48.0N 81.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Subtropical Depression Alberto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2018-05-29 04:36:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE MAY 29 2018 000 FONT11 KNHC 290235 PWSAT1 SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ALBERTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012018 0300 UTC TUE MAY 29 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ALBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BIRMINGHAM AL 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MONTGOMERY AL 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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alberto
Subtropical Depression Alberto Forecast Advisory Number 16
2018-05-29 04:35:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE MAY 29 2018 000 WTNT21 KNHC 290235 TCMAT1 SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ALBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012018 0300 UTC TUE MAY 29 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE AUCILLA RIVER TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 86.2W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 86.2W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 86.1W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 32.9N 86.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 35.6N 87.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 38.4N 87.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 41.6N 86.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 48.0N 81.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.4N 86.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Subtropical Storm Alberto Graphics
2018-05-29 01:51:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 28 May 2018 23:51:30 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 28 May 2018 20:44:48 GMT
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Summary for Subtropical Storm Alberto (AT1/AL012018)
2018-05-29 01:50:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...WEAKENING ALBERTO MOVING FARTHER INLAND... As of 7:00 PM CDT Mon May 28 the center of Alberto was located near 30.9, -86.1 with movement N at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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