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Subtropical Storm Alberto Public Advisory Number 15A
2018-05-29 01:50:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018 000 WTNT31 KNHC 282350 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Alberto Intermediate Advisory Number 15A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018 700 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018 ...WEAKENING ALBERTO MOVING FARTHER INLAND... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.9N 86.1W ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM N OF DEFUNIAK SPRINGS FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning west of the Okaloosa/Walton County line to the Alabama/Florida border has been discontinued. The Storm Surge Watch from the Aucilla River to Mexico Beach has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Aucilla River to the Okaloosa/Walton County line For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto was located near latitude 30.9 North, longitude 86.1 West. The storm is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). A faster northward to north-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Alberto will move over Alabama later tonight and early Tuesday. The system is forecast to move over the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday and into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region on Wednesday and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast as Alberto moves farther inland, and Alberto is expected to become a subtropical depression later tonight, and degenerate into a remnant low by Tuesday afternoon. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.38 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Tuesday: The Florida panhandle across eastern and central Alabama and western Georgia...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches. The Florida Keys and Florida peninsula...Additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated 5 inches. Rest of the Southeast and Tennessee Valley into the lower mid Atlantic from Tennessee east through the Carolinas...2 to 6 inches. Flooding and flash flooding are possible in the southeast United States, including Florida. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue within portions of the warning area for the next few hours. STORM SURGE: Water levels along the northeast Gulf of Mexico coast are receding, and will continue to do so overnight. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible through tonight over parts of Georgia and southeast Alabama. SURF: Swells generated by Alberto will continue to affect the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. For more information, consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Subtropical Storm Alberto Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
2018-05-29 00:05:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Mon, 28 May 2018 22:05:50 GMT
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Subtropical Storm Alberto Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2018-05-28 22:46:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Mon, 28 May 2018 20:46:22 GMT
Subtropical Storm Alberto Graphics
2018-05-28 22:44:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 28 May 2018 20:44:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 28 May 2018 20:44:48 GMT
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Subtropical Storm Alberto Forecast Discussion Number 15
2018-05-28 22:44:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018 000 WTNT41 KNHC 282043 TCDAT1 Subtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018 400 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018 Satellite and NWS Doppler radar data indicate that the center of Alberto is making landfall along the coast of the Florida panhandle near Laguna Beach with maximum winds estimated at 40 kt. The overall organization of the system has changed little throughout the day as bands of convection have continued to develop primarily over the northern portion of the circulation. Data from the Air Force reconnaissance aircraft showed that the pressure continued to slowly rise and it was estimated to be 994 mb on the last fix just before 1700 UTC. Alberto should quickly weaken as the circulation moves inland this evening and the system should become a depression by late tonight or early Tuesday. Alberto has been moving northward or 355/8 kt. The track forecast reasoning has not changed from the previous advisory. The cyclone should move northward to north-northwestward around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge located over the western Atlantic over the next couple of days. The system is forecast to be absorbed by a frontal system over Canada in 3 to 4 days. The track guidance remains in good agreement on this scenario and only slight changes to the official forecast were required. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall will lead to a significant risk of flash flooding across the Florida Panhandle, much of Alabama, and western Georgia through tonight, spreading northward into northern Georgia, the western Carolinas, and Tennessee on Tuesday. 2. A hazardous storm surge remains possible along portions of the coast of the Florida panhandle through this evening. Residents in the storm surge watch area are encouraged to follow guidance given by their local government officials. 3. Tropical storm conditions are likely within portions of the tropical storm warning through this evening. 4. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will continue to affect portions of the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 30.3N 85.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 32.0N 86.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 29/1800Z 34.3N 87.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 30/0600Z 37.0N 87.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/1800Z 40.1N 86.7W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 31/1800Z 46.2N 82.3W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT $$ Forecaster Brown
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