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Subtropical Storm Alberto Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2018-05-27 16:40:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sun, 27 May 2018 14:40:06 GMT
Subtropical Storm Alberto Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2018-05-27 16:40:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sun, 27 May 2018 14:40:06 GMT
Subtropical Storm Alberto Forecast Discussion Number 9
2018-05-27 16:38:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun May 27 2018 000 WTNT41 KNHC 271438 TCDAT1 Subtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018 1100 AM EDT Sun May 27 2018 The satellite and radar presentation of Alberto has improved markedly over the past 12 hours or so. Deep convection has increased and become organized in a primary band that wraps around the western and northwestern portions of the storm and the circulation has also become much better defined than 24 hours ago. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft has recently indicated that the pressure has fallen to 994 mb. The aircraft has also reported peak flight-level winds of 49 kt and believable SFMR winds of around 40 kt, however, the aircraft has not yet sampled the northwestern portion of the circulation where the deepest convection is located. Assuming that there are slightly higher winds in that area, the initial intensity has been increased to 45 kt. With deep convection closer to the center and a slightly smaller radius of maximum winds, it appears that Alberto is beginning its transition to a tropical cyclone. The reconnaissance aircraft data also indicate that a shallow warm core is present. It is likely that Alberto will make the transition to tropical storm later today or tonight. As this transition occurs, some additional strengthening is forecast while Alberto moves over marginally warm sea surface temperatures and the shear relaxes. However, dry mid- level air wrapping around the eastern portion of the circulation could slow the intensification process before Alberto reaches the coast. The initial motion estimate of 005/12 is again highly uncertain due to the center re-formations that have occurred over the past 12 to 24 hours. The cyclone should move generally northward today, then turn northwestward around the northeastern side of a cutoff low over the central Gulf of Mexico. The timing and location of landfall of the center will be dependent on when the northwestward turn occurs. The latest ECMWF forecast moves Alberto faster northward before it makes the turn and therefore brings the center onshore much sooner and farther eastward than the UKMET and GFS. The NHC forecast is near the model consensus, and is somewhat faster than the previous advisory. Users should remember not to focus on the exact timing and location of landfall since wind and rain will continue to spread northward over the northeastern Gulf Coast well ahead of the center. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Alberto is expected to produce heavy rainfall with a risk of flooding and flash flooding over western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and south Florida today. The risk for heavy rainfall and flooding will then spread over much of the southeast U.S. tonight and Monday. 2. Hazardous storm surge is possible along portions of the eastern Gulf Coast beginning later today, including areas well east of the track of Alberto's center. Residents in the storm surge watch area are encouraged to follow any guidance given by their local government officials. 3. Tropical storm conditions are likely within the tropical storm warning area along the Florida west coast today and within the warning area along the northern Gulf Coast by tonight. 4. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will continue to affect portions of the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 27.1N 84.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 28.7N 84.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 24H 28/1200Z 30.3N 85.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 36H 29/0000Z 31.6N 86.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 29/1200Z 33.6N 86.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 30/1200Z 38.3N 87.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 96H 31/1200Z 43.3N 84.7W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/1200Z 46.5N 79.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Subtropical Storm Alberto (AT1/AL012018)
2018-05-27 16:37:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ALBERTO MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... As of 11:00 AM EDT Sun May 27 the center of Alberto was located near 27.1, -84.4 with movement N at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Subtropical Storm Alberto Public Advisory Number 9
2018-05-27 16:37:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun May 27 2018 000 WTNT31 KNHC 271437 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Alberto Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018 1100 AM EDT Sun May 27 2018 ...ALBERTO MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.1N 84.4W ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SSE OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning for the Dry Tortugas has been discontinued. The Tropical Storm Watch along the north-central Gulf Coast has been discontinued. The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued west of the Florida/Alabama border. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Crystal River to the Florida/Alabama border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bonita Beach to the Mississippi/Alabama border A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto was located near latitude 27.1 North, longitude 84.4 West. The storm is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest at a slower forward speed is forecast tonight. A north-northwestward to northward motion is expected late Monday through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Alberto will cross the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico today and approach the northern Gulf Coast in the warning area tonight or Monday. Heavy rainfall and tropical storm conditions will likely reach the northern Gulf Coast well before the arrival of the center of Alberto. Alberto is expected to move northward into the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast before the system reaches the northern Gulf Coast. Steady weakening is expected after landfall, and Alberto is forecast to become a tropical depression by Monday night or Tuesday. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) primarily to the east of the center. The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Tuesday: Central Cuba...Additional 5 to 10 inches, isolated storm totals of 20 inches. The Florida panhandle into eastern Alabama and western Georgia...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches. The Florida Keys and south Florida...Additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated storm totals of 10 inches. Rest of the Florida peninsula...1 to 4 inches. Rest of the southeast U.S. from Tennessee to the Carolinas...2 to 6 inches. Rains in Cuba could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Flooding and flash flooding are possible in the southeast United States, including Florida. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will spread northward in the warning area along the west coast of Florida today and will reach the warning area along the northern Gulf Coast by this evening. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Crystal River to the Florida/Alabama border...2 to 4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge- related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across the Florida peninsula today. SURF: Swells generated by Alberto will affect the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. For more information, consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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