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Subtropical Storm Alberto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9

2018-05-27 16:37:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN MAY 27 2018 000 FONT11 KNHC 271437 PWSAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012018 1500 UTC SUN MAY 27 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BEAUFORT MCAS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ATLANTA GA 34 X 5( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) AUGUSTA GA 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAVANNAH GA 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) KINGS BAY GA 34 12 3(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) WAYCROSS GA 34 15 6(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) MAYPORT NS FL 34 12 2(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) JACKSONVILLE 34 16 3(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) GAINESVILLE FL 34 35 2(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) DAYTONA BEACH 34 12 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) THE VILLAGES 34 26 1(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) ORLANDO FL 34 12 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) COCOA BEACH FL 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PATRICK AFB 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FT PIERCE FL 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NAPLES FL 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FT MYERS FL 34 7 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) VENICE FL 34 22 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) TAMPA FL 34 38 X(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) CEDAR KEY FL 34 62 1(63) 1(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 51 22(73) 1(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST MARKS FL 34 64 16(80) 1(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) ST MARKS FL 50 1 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) APALACHICOLA 34 78 16(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) APALACHICOLA 50 5 20(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) APALACHICOLA 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 290N 850W 34 92 2(94) 1(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) GFMX 290N 850W 50 16 10(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) GFMX 290N 850W 64 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 50 36(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) PANAMA CITY FL 50 1 23(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 11 51(62) 3(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X 13(13) 5(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 3 13(16) 9(25) 2(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X 5( 5) 6(11) 7(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) MONTGOMERY AL 34 2 15(17) 17(34) 5(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 5 36(41) 7(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) WHITING FLD FL 50 X 5( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PENSACOLA FL 34 4 32(36) 6(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) PENSACOLA FL 50 X 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 290N 870W 34 10 13(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOBILE AL 34 1 12(13) 5(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) GULFPORT MS 34 1 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) STENNIS MS 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BURAS LA 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSON MS 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Subtropical Storm Alberto Forecast Advisory Number 9

2018-05-27 16:37:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN MAY 27 2018 000 WTNT21 KNHC 271437 TCMAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012018 1500 UTC SUN MAY 27 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED WEST OF THE FLORIDA/ALABAMA BORDER. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CRYSTAL RIVER TO THE FLORIDA/ALABAMA BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BONITA BEACH TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 84.4W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......110NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 84.4W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 84.4W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 28.7N 84.9W...TROPICAL STORM MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 60SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 30.3N 85.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 31.6N 86.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 33.6N 86.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 38.3N 87.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 43.3N 84.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 46.5N 79.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.1N 84.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Summary for Subtropical Storm Alberto (AT1/AL012018)

2018-05-27 13:49:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...SLIGHTLY STRONGER ALBERTO MOVING A LITTLE FASTER NORTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... As of 8:00 AM EDT Sun May 27 the center of Alberto was located near 26.3, -84.4 with movement N at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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Subtropical Storm Alberto Public Advisory Number 8A

2018-05-27 13:49:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 800 AM EDT Sun May 27 2018 000 WTNT31 KNHC 271149 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Alberto Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018 800 AM EDT Sun May 27 2018 ...SLIGHTLY STRONGER ALBERTO MOVING A LITTLE FASTER NORTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.3N 84.4W ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 010 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Crystal River to the Mississippi/Alabama border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas * Bonita Beach to the Mississippi/Alabama border A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations in this case during the next 36 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible somewhere within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto was located near latitude 26.3 North, longitude 84.4 West. The storm is moving toward the north near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest at a slower forward speed is forecast tonight. A north-northwestward to northward motion is expected Tuesday through early Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Alberto will cross the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico today and approach the northern Gulf Coast in the warning area tonight or Monday. Heavy rainfall and tropical storm conditions will likely reach the northern Gulf Coast well before the arrival of the center of Alberto. Alberto is expected to move northward into the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast until the system reaches the northern Gulf Coast. Steady weakening is expected after Alberto makes landfall, and it is forecast to become a tropical depression by Monday night or Tuesday. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) mainly to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft data is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Tuesday: Central Cuba...Additional 5 to 10 inches, isolated storm totals of 20 inches. The Florida panhandle into eastern Alabama and western Georgia...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches. The Florida Keys and south Florida...Additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated storm totals of 10 inches. Rest of the Florida peninsula...1 to 4 inches. Rest of the southeast U.S. from Tennessee to the Carolinas...2 to 6 inches. Rains in Cuba could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Flooding and flash flooding are possible in the southeast United States, including Florida. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Dry Tortugas, and these conditions are expected to spread northward in the warning area along the west coast of Florida today. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area along the northern Gulf Coast by later today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the northern Gulf Coast by Monday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Crystal River to the Mississippi/Alabama border...2 to 4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge- related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across the Florida peninsula today. SURF: Swells generated by Alberto will affect the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. For more information, consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

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