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Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 4
2017-08-30 16:36:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 30 2017 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 301436 TCMEP4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142017 1500 UTC WED AUG 30 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WATCH NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TO EAST OF LA PAZ. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF TODOS SANTOS TO SANTA FE AND FROM NORTH OF LOS BARRILES TO LA PAZ. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM WEST OF LA PAZ TO LORETO ON THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND ON THE MAINLAND FROM BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA TO HUATABAMPITO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM PUERTO CORTES TO EAST OF LA PAZ A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF LA PAZ TO LORETO * MAINLAND MEXICO FROM BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA TO HUATABAMPITO A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN WESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 108.6W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 108.6W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 108.5W FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 20.4N 109.2W...TROPICAL STORM MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 21.4N 109.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...130NE 150SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 22.3N 109.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...140NE 180SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 23.4N 110.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 25.4N 112.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 27.5N 115.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 28.5N 118.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 108.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E Graphics
2017-08-30 13:46:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 30 Aug 2017 11:46:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 30 Aug 2017 09:29:39 GMT
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E (EP4/EP142017)
2017-08-30 13:45:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...LARGE DISTURBANCE PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINS OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 6:00 AM MDT Wed Aug 30 the center of Fourteen-E was located near 18.8, -108.8 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E Public Advisory Number 3A
2017-08-30 13:45:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 600 AM MDT Wed Aug 30 2017 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 301145 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142017 600 AM MDT Wed Aug 30 2017 ...LARGE DISTURBANCE PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINS OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 108.8W ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Puerto Cortes to Los Barriles A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Todos Santos to Los Barriles A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * north of Los Barriles to San Evaristo A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 108.8 West. The system is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slower north-northwestward motion is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the disturbance will be near the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula by late Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The system is expected to strengthen to a tropical storm by tonight, and it could become a hurricane by late Thursday or early Friday. The disturbance continues to show signs of organization, and only a small increase in the definition of the circulation would lead to the formation of a tropical cyclone. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent * Formation chance through 5 days... high...near 100 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force wind gusts are possible in rainbands along the coast of Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco today. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches in the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco and Nayarit, with isolated maximum totals of 20 inches possible along the immediate coast. This rain could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by the disturbance are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico. These swells will likely reach the southern portions of Baja California Sur later today, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Harvey Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
2017-08-30 11:44:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Wed, 30 Aug 2017 09:44:40 GMT
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