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Tropical Storm Harvey Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
2017-08-29 17:35:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Tue, 29 Aug 2017 15:35:22 GMT
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Graphics
2017-08-29 16:42:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 29 Aug 2017 14:42:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 29 Aug 2017 14:42:53 GMT
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Forecast Discussion Number 8
2017-08-29 16:37:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 291437 TCDAT5 Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102017 1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017 Surface observations near and offshore the southern coast of North Carolina indicate that an elongated circulation and pressure minimum are located over Onslow Bay, but satellite imagery still shows no signs of a well-defined center. In addition, a sharp wind shift, associated with a front, extends northeastward across Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds and the Outer Banks. Maximum winds remain 35 kt for continuity's sake since there have been no recent observations of sustained tropical-storm-force winds. The disturbance has so far failed to become a tropical cyclone, and since vertical shear is 30-40 kt and increasing, it appears that it now has a low chance of doing so before it becomes extratropical later today. Baroclinic energy from the approaching shortwave trough should cause the extratropical cyclone to strengthen significantly during the next day or two, and it is forecast to be producing hurricane-force winds over the northwestern Atlantic by 36 hours. Gradual weakening is expected after that time until the cyclone is absorbed on day 5. The track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts continue to incorporate guidance provided by NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center. The disturbance is accelerating toward the northeast with an initial motion of 045/15 kt, and it is likely to clear the Outer Banks into the western Atlantic by late this afternoon. The system is embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies, and it will be interacting with a shortwave trough moving east of the Great Lakes during the next couple of days. This will cause the disturbance to continue accelerating toward the northeast or east-northeast over the north Atlantic for the next 4 days. The cyclone is expected to be absorbed by another extratropical low by day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 34.4N 77.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 30/0000Z 36.6N 73.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 30/1200Z 38.8N 69.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 31/0000Z 40.4N 63.8W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 31/1200Z 41.8N 58.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 01/1200Z 45.8N 45.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 02/1200Z 51.0N 29.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 03/1200Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten (AT5/AL102017)
2017-08-29 16:36:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY THIS EVENING... As of 11:00 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 the center of Ten was located near 34.4, -77.2 with movement NE at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Public Advisory Number 8
2017-08-29 16:36:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 291436 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102017 1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017 ...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY THIS EVENING... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.4N 77.2W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSE OF JACKSONVILLE NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM WSW OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued west of Cape Lookout, North Carolina. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cape Lookout to Duck * Albemarle Sound * Pamlico Sound A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area later today. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 34.4 North, longitude 77.2 West. The system is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and it is expected to accelerate toward the northeast and east-northeast during the next couple of days. The disturbance is forecast to move near the coast of North Carolina today and then move away from the coast over the western Atlantic Ocean tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. The disturbance is not expected to change much in strength today, and the chances for the system to become a tropical cyclone continue to decrease. Regardless of whether or not this system becomes a tropical cyclone, tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rains are expected over portions of North Carolina today. The disturbance is forecast to strengthen at sea and become a hurricane-force extratropical low over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean by Wednesday evening. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) to the southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area through this afternoon. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with isolated amounts of 5 inches along the northeast North Carolina and southeast Virginia coasts into the Delmarva through Wednesday. The heavier rains may result in some flooding concerns along coastal areas. SURF: Swells generated by this disturbance will affect portions of the North Carolina and Virginia coasts during the next day or so, creating dangerous surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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