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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Advisory Number 44

2020-11-11 09:55:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC WED NOV 11 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 110855 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 44 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0900 UTC WED NOV 11 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM ANNA MARIA ISLAND TO YANKEETOWN. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANNA MARIA ISLAND TO YANKEETOWN A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DRY TORTUGAS * BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BONITA BEACH TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER FLORIDA...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...ARTEMISA...MAYABEQUE...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH * NORTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO AUCILLA RIVER FLORIDA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ETA. ADDITIONAL WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 84.1W AT 11/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 84.1W AT 11/0900Z AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 84.2W FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 26.4N 83.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 27.9N 83.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 29.2N 82.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 30.2N 81.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 30.9N 79.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 31.0N 78.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N 84.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 11/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Tropical Storm Eta Graphics

2020-11-11 06:40:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 11 Nov 2020 05:40:13 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 11 Nov 2020 03:24:41 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Storm Eta (AT4/AL292020)

2020-11-11 06:39:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...ETA'S RAIN BANDS MOVING OVER THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS AND APPROACHING SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA... As of 1:00 AM EST Wed Nov 11 the center of Eta was located near 24.4, -84.4 with movement NNE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

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Tropical Storm Eta Public Advisory Number 43A

2020-11-11 06:39:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 100 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 110539 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 43A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 100 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 ...ETA'S RAIN BANDS MOVING OVER THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS AND APPROACHING SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 100 AM EST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.4N 84.4W ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM W OF THE DRY TORTUGAS ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas * Bonita Beach to Suwannee River Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Bonita Beach to Steinhatchee River Florida, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth * North of the Suwannee River to Aucilla River Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor the progress of Eta. Additional warnings may be required along portions of the Florida Gulf coast today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM EST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 84.4 West. Eta is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A motion toward the north-northeast is forecast through Thursday. On the forecast track the center of Eta will move closer to but offshore of the southwest coast of Florida today, approach the west-central coast of Florida Wednesday night, and move inland over the northern portion of the Florida peninsula on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast today, and Eta could be near hurricane strength late this morning. Gradual weakening is expected to begin Wednesday night or early Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. Buoy 42026 from the University of South Florida located about 75 miles northeast of the center of Eta recently reported sustained winds of 36 mph (57 km/h) with a gust to 54 mph (86 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on earlier NOAA reconnaissance aircraft data is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Steinhatchee River to Bonita Beach, FL including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Flamingo, FL...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore flow, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall overnight: Western Cuba: an additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm), with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (765 mm). South Florida: Isolated additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 15 to 20 inches. Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Friday: West Florida into the eastern Florida Panhandle and portions of North Florida: 1 to 3 inches, with isolated totals of 5 inches. Flash and river flooding will be possible in western Cuba through tonight, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Additional flash and urban flooding will be possible in South Florida tonight, especially across previously inundated areas, and eventually across portions of west Florida, the eastern Florida Panhandle, and north Florida through Friday. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas through this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Florida west coast by late Wednesday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the Florida Big Bend region by Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba overnight. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north coast of Cuba, southern and western Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Blake

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