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Tropical Storm Eta Graphics
2020-11-10 12:48:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 10 Nov 2020 11:48:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 10 Nov 2020 09:24:52 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Eta (AT4/AL292020)
2020-11-10 12:46:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ETA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE JUST OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN CUBA... ...RISK OF FLOODING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND WESTERN CUBA CONTINUES... As of 6:00 AM CST Tue Nov 10 the center of Eta was located near 22.6, -85.3 with movement S at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Eta Public Advisory Number 40A
2020-11-10 12:46:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 600 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 101146 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 40A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 600 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020 ...ETA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE JUST OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN CUBA... ...RISK OF FLOODING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND WESTERN CUBA CONTINUES... SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.6N 85.3W ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM NW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor the progress of Eta. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 85.3 West. Eta has been drifting southward this morning, but it is expected to become stationary again later today. A slow northward motion is forecast to begin tonight and continue through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, followed by weakening likely starting on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts today and tonight: Western Cuba: an additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (765 mm). South Florida: an additional 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm), with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 20 inches (510 mm). Flash and river flooding will be possible in western Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Additional flash and urban flooding, especially across previously inundated areas, will be possible in South Florida today and tonight. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba today. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida and the Florida Keys during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Stewart/Latto
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Tropical Storm Eta Graphics
2020-11-10 09:43:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 10 Nov 2020 08:43:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 10 Nov 2020 08:43:28 GMT
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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Discussion Number 40
2020-11-10 09:39:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 100839 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 300 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020 There hasn't been a lot of change to the cloud pattern of Eta overnight, with the center apparently located on the northwestern side of a small central dense overcast. Scatterometer data from earlier indicated 35-40 kt winds, and with the typical undersampling from that instrument, along with consensus 45-kt estimates from TAFB/SAB, so Eta's initial wind speed is kept at 45 kt. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft should be in the storm this morning. Eta is forecast to be in a low-to-moderate shear environment over warm SSTs for the next couple of days. Gradual strengthening is expected through early Thursday, with the main restrictive factor being nearby dry air. After that time, increasing shear and drier mid-level air are likely to cause Eta to weaken. The rate of this weakening is pretty uncertain, and a lot depends on how much Eta can re-intensify over the next couple of days. The new forecast is similar to the previous one, which is quite close to the consensus guidance. The storm has basically become stationary overnight. Eta should drift to north today due to steering flow changes with a nearby upper-level low losing influence while ridging east of Florida builds southward. A slow northward track is then anticipated for a couple of days over the east-central Gulf of Mexico in this flow pattern. Beyond that time, model guidance is in rather poor agreement, ranging from a stronger system moving faster to the northeast due to broad troughing over the south-central United States, to a weaker tropical cyclone getting caught under a narrow ridge over the Gulf of Mexico and turning west-southwestward. Since the new forecast expects Eta to be weakening, the NHC forecast will be west of the consensus and west of the previous track. I have little confidence in the long-range track forecast due to its seeming dependence on the intensity, and the wide spread in the guidance. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across western Cuba and South Florida today and tonight. Additional flash and urban flooding, especially across previously inundated areas, will be possible in South Florida. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for western Cuba. 2. Eta could approach the Florida Gulf Coast later this week as a tropical storm, and possibly bring impacts from rain, wind, and storm surge. Interests in this area should continue to monitor the progress of Eta and updates to the forecast this week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 22.9N 85.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 23.1N 85.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 24.0N 85.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 25.0N 85.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 12/0600Z 26.0N 85.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 12/1800Z 26.8N 85.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 13/0600Z 27.3N 85.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 14/0600Z 28.8N 86.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 15/0600Z 30.0N 87.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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