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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Discussion Number 41
2020-11-10 15:55:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 101455 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 41 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 900 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020 A significant increase in deep convection has occurred since the previous advisory this morning, including a CDO-like feature with cloud tops of -85C to -87C very near the low-level center. However, recent passive microwave satellite images indicate that the center is displaced to the northwest of the coldest cloud tops due to modest northwesterly mid- and upper-level vertical wind shear. The initial intensity has been increased to 50 kt, which is based on an average of Dvorak satellite intensity estimates of T3.0/45 kt from TAFB and T3.5/55 kt from SAB. Although the initial motion estimate is 360/02 kt, Eta has essentially been stationary for the past 9 hours or so. Radar data from Casablanca, Cuba, and satellite fixes suggest that Eta has been making a small cyclonic/counter-clockwise loop within the larger gyre in which the small center is embedded. Until the gyre breaks down or moves northward, there will be little poleward motion by Eta today. By tonight, however, the global and regional models are in good agreement on a broad mid-tropospheric trough moving eastward across the central and eastern United States, which is expected to erode a subtropical ridge to the north of the Eta, allowing both the larger gyre and Eta to move slowly northward. This steering pattern is expected to continue through about 72 hours. Thereafter, the model guidance diverges significantly between motions ranging from westward (GFS/GFS-ensemble) to northward (ECMWF) to northeastward (COAMPS-TC). The 96-120 hour motions are directly related to the strength of the cyclone, with a much weaker Eta forecast to move westward and a stronger hurricane solution moving northeastward. The latter scenario seems unlikely given that the vertical shear is forecast to increase from the northwest and west at more than 25 kt, which acts to weaken Eta and also impart a slight eastward tug on the system. As a result, the official forecast track calls for Eta to basically move slowly northward through the 120-h forecast period and gradually weaken into a shallow cyclone that drifts northward. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to a blend of the consensus models TVCA, NOAA-HCCA, and the Florida Superensemble (FSSE). Eta is expected to remain in a low-to-moderate vertical wind shear environment and over warm SSTs of 27-28 deg C for the next couple of days. Although the surrounding environment is expected to be somewhat dry, the other two favorable environmental factors should allow for some strengthening into Thursday, Thereafter, increasing shear from the northwest and west, along with drier mid-level air and cooler SSTs are likely to cause Eta to weaken. The rate of this weakening remains uncertain, and depends heavily on how much Eta re-intensifies over the next couple of days. The new intensity forecast is essentially the same as the previous advisory, and is a little below the consensus models IVCN, HCCA, and FSSE, all of which make Eta a hurricane again by 36 hours. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across western Cuba and South Florida today and tonight. Additional flash and urban flooding, especially across previously inundated areas, will be possible in South Florida. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for western Cuba. 2. Eta could approach the northeastern or north-central U.S. Gulf Coast later this week as a tropical storm, and possibly bring impacts from rain, wind, and storm surge. Interests in this area should continue to monitor the progress of Eta and updates to the forecast this week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 22.7N 85.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 23.1N 85.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 24.0N 85.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 25.0N 85.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 25.9N 85.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 13/0000Z 26.6N 85.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 13/1200Z 27.2N 85.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 14/1200Z 28.6N 86.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 15/1200Z 30.1N 86.4W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Eta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 41
2020-11-10 15:53:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE NOV 10 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 101453 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 1500 UTC TUE NOV 10 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) MARATHON FL 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) KEY WEST FL 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) X(10) 1(11) NAPLES FL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) VENICE FL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 5(17) 1(18) 1(19) TAMPA FL 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 5(13) 2(15) X(15) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 6(12) 2(14) 1(15) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 8(13) 5(18) 3(21) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 11(19) 4(23) 2(25) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 5(15) 4(19) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 8(12) 5(17) 4(21) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 3(12) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 6 3( 9) 2(11) 1(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) HAVANA 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLE OF PINES 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 3(14) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Summary for Tropical Storm Eta (AT4/AL292020)
2020-11-10 15:52:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ETA MEANDERING JUST OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN CUBA... ...RISK OF FLOODING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND WESTERN CUBA CONTINUES... As of 9:00 AM CST Tue Nov 10 the center of Eta was located near 22.7, -85.3 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Eta Public Advisory Number 41
2020-11-10 15:52:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 101452 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 41 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 900 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020 ...ETA MEANDERING JUST OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN CUBA... ...RISK OF FLOODING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND WESTERN CUBA CONTINUES... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.7N 85.3W ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM NNW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area today. Interests along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor the progress of Eta. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 85.3 West. Eta has been nearly stationary this morning, and little motion is expected today. A slow northward motion is forecast to begin by this evening and continue through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, followed by weakening likely starting on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts today and tonight: Western Cuba: an additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (765 mm). South Florida: an additional 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm), with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 20 inches (510 mm). Flash and river flooding will be possible in western Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Additional flash and urban flooding, especially across previously inundated areas, will be possible in South Florida today and tonight. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba today. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern and western Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Advisory Number 41
2020-11-10 15:51:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE NOV 10 2020 885 WTNT24 KNHC 101451 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 1500 UTC TUE NOV 10 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...ARTEMISA...MAYABEQUE...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ALONG THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ETA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 85.3W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 85.3W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 85.3W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 23.1N 85.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.0N 85.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 25.0N 85.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 25.9N 85.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 26.6N 85.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 27.2N 85.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 28.6N 86.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 30.1N 86.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 85.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 10/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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