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Tropical Storm Eta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 43
2020-11-11 03:54:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED NOV 11 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 110254 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 43 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0300 UTC WED NOV 11 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) X(10) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 4(12) X(12) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) X(11) KINGS BAY GA 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) 11(21) 4(25) X(25) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) WAYCROSS GA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 6(11) 4(15) X(15) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 6(13) 11(24) 4(28) X(28) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) JACKSONVILLE 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 7( 9) 9(18) 3(21) X(21) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 16(23) 9(32) 1(33) X(33) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 7(11) 8(19) 2(21) X(21) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) THE VILLAGES 34 X 3( 3) 8(11) 16(27) 8(35) 2(37) X(37) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) ORLANDO FL 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 8(14) 6(20) 2(22) X(22) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 2 4( 6) 4(10) 3(13) 3(16) 3(19) X(19) PATRICK AFB 34 2 4( 6) 4(10) 3(13) 4(17) 2(19) X(19) FT PIERCE FL 34 2 4( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) 3(13) 2(15) X(15) W PALM BEACH 34 2 4( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) 2(11) 2(13) X(13) FT LAUDERDALE 34 2 4( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) MIAMI FL 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MARATHON FL 34 3 4( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) KEY WEST FL 34 4 4( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) 1(12) X(12) NAPLES FL 34 3 13(16) 6(22) 1(23) 2(25) 1(26) X(26) FT MYERS FL 34 1 6( 7) 4(11) 2(13) 1(14) 1(15) X(15) VENICE FL 34 3 34(37) 18(55) 2(57) 1(58) 2(60) X(60) VENICE FL 50 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) TAMPA FL 34 3 17(20) 31(51) 8(59) 3(62) 2(64) X(64) TAMPA FL 50 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 2 6( 8) 25(33) 15(48) 5(53) 2(55) X(55) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) X(10) ST MARKS FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) 2(12) X(12) APALACHICOLA 34 1 3( 4) 6(10) 4(14) 4(18) 2(20) X(20) GFMX 290N 850W 34 1 5( 6) 11(17) 4(21) 3(24) 1(25) X(25) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) 2(13) X(13) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HAVANA 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLE OF PINES 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Summary for Tropical Storm Eta (AT4/AL292020)
2020-11-11 03:53:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT ETA IS A LITTLE STRONGER... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND STORM SURGE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA... As of 10:00 PM EST Tue Nov 10 the center of Eta was located near 23.8, -84.5 with movement NNE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Eta Public Advisory Number 43
2020-11-11 03:53:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 110253 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 43 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 1000 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2020 ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT ETA IS A LITTLE STRONGER... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND STORM SURGE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.8N 84.5W ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Florida west coast from Bonita Beach to the Suwannee River. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the Florida west coast from Bonita Beach to the Steinhatchee River, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Florida Gulf coast from north of the Suwannee River to the Aucilla River. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas * Bonita Beach to Suwannee River Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Bonita Beach to Steinhatchee River Florida, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth * North of the Suwannee River to Aucilla River Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor the progress of Eta. Additional warnings may be required along portions of the Florida Gulf coast early Wednesday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 84.5 West. Eta is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A motion toward the north-northeast is forecast through Thursday. On the forecast track the center of Eta will move closer to but offshore of the southwest coast of Florida on Wednesday, approach the west-central coast of Florida Wednesday night, and move inland over the northern portion of the Florida peninsula on Thursday. Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast through Wednesday, and Eta could be near hurricane strength by Wednesday morning. Gradual weakening is expected to begin Wednesday night or early Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on reconnaissance aircraft data is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Steinhatchee River to Bonita Beach, FL including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Flamingo, FL...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore flow, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall through tonight: Western Cuba: an additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm), with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (765 mm). South Florida: Isolated additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 15 to 20 inches. Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Friday: West Florida into the eastern Florida Panhandle and portions of North Florida: 1 to 3 inches, with isolated totals of 5 inches. Flash and river flooding will be possible in western Cuba through tonight, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Additional flash and urban flooding will be possible in South Florida tonight, especially across previously inundated areas, and eventually across portions of west Florida, the eastern Florida Panhandle, and north Florida Wednesday through Friday. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas overnight and early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Florida west coast by late Wednesday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the Florida Big Bend region by Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north coast of Cuba, southern and western Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM EST. Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Eta Graphics
2020-11-11 00:53:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 10 Nov 2020 23:53:13 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 10 Nov 2020 21:24:39 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Eta (AT4/AL292020)
2020-11-11 00:52:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING ETA... ...RISK OF FLOODING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND WESTERN CUBA CONTINUES... As of 6:00 PM CST Tue Nov 10 the center of Eta was located near 23.5, -84.7 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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