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Tropical Storm Gordon Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2018-09-05 04:56:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 05 2018 055 FONT12 KNHC 050256 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GORDON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072018 0300 UTC WED SEP 05 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PENSACOLA FL 34 13 X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) MOBILE AL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MOBILE AL 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 31 X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) JACKSON MS 34 5 22(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Gordon Public Advisory Number 11
2018-09-05 04:56:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 04 2018 057 WTNT32 KNHC 050256 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gordon Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018 1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 04 2018 ...CENTER OF GORDON MAKING LANDFALL JUST WEST OF THE ALABAMA-MISSISSIPPI BORDER... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.3N 88.4W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM ESE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SSW OF MOBILE ALABAMA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: All warnings and watches west of the mouth of the Pearl River have been discontinued. The Storm Surge Warning west of Biloxi has also been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Biloxi Mississippi to Dauphin Island A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * East of Dauphin Island to Navarre A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama-Florida Border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Alabama-Florida Border to Okaloosa-Walton County Line A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning areas. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gordon was located near latitude 30.3 North, longitude 88.4 West. Gordon is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Gordon will move inland across the lower Mississippi Valley through Wednesday. A turn toward the north-northwest and north is forecast to occur on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is forecast after Gordon moves inland, and Gordon is forecast to become a tropical depression on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. A NOAA Coastal Marine Observing site on Dauphin Island, Alabama has measured a sustained wind of 57 mph (91 km/h) with a gust to 72 mph (117 km/h). A wind gust of 61 mph (98 km/h) was recently observed at the Pensacola Naval Air Station. The latest minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Mississippi River to Biloxi...1 to 3 ft. Biloxi to the Alabama/Florida Border including Mobile Bay...2 to 4 ft. Alabama/Florida Border to Navarre, Florida...1 to 3 ft. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Gordon is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over the western Florida Panhandle, southwest Alabama, southern and central Mississippi, northeastern Louisiana, and southern Arkansas, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches through late Thursday. This rainfall will cause flash flooding across portions of these areas. WIND: Tropical storm and hurricane conditions will continue to spread onshore during the next several hours within portions of the warning area. TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible tonight near the coasts of Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Gordon Forecast Advisory Number 11
2018-09-05 04:55:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 05 2018 354 WTNT22 KNHC 050255 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072018 0300 UTC WED SEP 05 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... ALL WARNINGS AND WATCHES WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STORM SURGE WARNING WEST OF BILOXI HAS ALSO BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BILOXI MISSISSIPPI TO DAUPHIN ISLAND A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF DAUPHIN ISLAND TO NAVARRE A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER TO OKALOOSA-WALTON COUNTY LINE A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 88.4W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 45SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 88.4W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 87.9W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 31.5N 89.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 32.7N 90.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 33.5N 92.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 34.3N 92.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 36.0N 93.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 38.3N 92.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 41.0N 88.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.3N 88.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Tropical Storm Gordon (AT2/AL072018)
2018-09-05 01:55:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS SPREADING ONSHORE ALONG THE ALABAMA AND WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE COASTLINES... As of 7:00 PM CDT Tue Sep 4 the center of Gordon was located near 29.7, -87.9 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Gordon Public Advisory Number 10A
2018-09-05 01:55:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Tue Sep 04 2018 924 WTNT32 KNHC 042355 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gordon Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018 700 PM CDT Tue Sep 04 2018 ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS SPREADING ONSHORE ALONG THE ALABAMA AND WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE COASTLINES... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.7N 87.9W ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM SE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM S OF MOBILE ALABAMA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Shell Beach to Dauphin Island A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * West of Shell Beach to the Mouth of the Mississippi River * East of Dauphin Island to Navarre A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama-Florida Border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West of the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mouth of the Mississippi River, including Lake Pontchartrain * Alabama-Florida Border to Okaloosa-Walton County Line A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning areas. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gordon was located by NOAA Doppler weather radars and a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 29.7 North, longitude 87.9 West. Gordon is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Gordon will make landfall along the north-central Gulf Coast within the hurricane warning area this evening or tonight, and then move inland over the lower Mississippi Valley through Wednesday. A gradual turn toward the north-northwest and north is forecast to occur on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Gordon could still become a hurricane before landfall occurs along the north-central Gulf Coast. Rapid weakening is forecast after Gordon moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. A NOAA buoy located about 10 miles south of Orange Beach, Alabama has recently reported sustained winds of 54 mph (86 km/h) with a gust to 60 mph (97 km/h). A NOAA Coastal Marine Observing site on Dauphin Island, Alabama has measured a sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) with a gust to 54 mph (87 km/h). A wind gust to 39 mph (63 km/h) was recently reported at Gulf Shores, Alabama. The latest minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA reconnaissance aircraft data is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Pearl River to Dauphin Island...3 to 5 ft. Navarre Florida to Dauphin Island, including Mobile Bay...2 to 4 ft. Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mouth of Mississippi River...2 to 4 ft. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Gordon is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over the western Florida Panhandle, southwest Alabama, southern and central Mississippi, northeastern Louisiana, and southern Arkansas, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches through late Thursday. This rainfall will cause flash flooding across portions of these areas. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread onshore during the next several hours within portions of the warning area, with hurricane conditions forecast by this evening in the hurricane warning area. TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible through tonight near the coasts of Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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