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Hurricane Iota Forecast Discussion Number 16

2020-11-17 09:44:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 AM EST Tue Nov 17 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 170844 TCDAT1 Hurricane Iota Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 400 AM EST Tue Nov 17 2020 Iota made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane along the northeastern coast of Nicaragua around 0340 UTC, near the town of Haulover. Iota's landfall location was about 12 nmi south of where Category 4 Hurricane Eta made landfall earlier this month on November 3rd. Due to the previous damage caused by Eta, wind reports have been extremely limited. There was an amateur radio report from Club de Radio-Experimentadores de Nicaragua of 124 mph (200 Km/h) winds and roofs damaged in the town of Wilbi, Nicaragua. However, it is uncertain if these were sustained winds or wind gusts. At the Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua, airport at 0253 UTC, a sustained wind of 72 kt (134 km/h) and a gust to 98 kt (182 km/h) were measured. The initial intensity of 90 kt is based on the Decay-SHIPS model's weakening rate for inland tropical cyclones, and the remnant eye feature still noted in infrared satellite imagery. Iota is moving westward, or 270/08 kt. Iota is expected to continue moving generally westward today into early Wednesday, as the cyclone moves along he southern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge located over the northern Caribbean Sea, the Gulf of Mexico, and southeastern Mexico. The lower levels of the ridge are forecast to push southward behind a cold front, which will force Iota and its remnants west-southwestward across southern Honduras and El Salvador in the 24-36 hour period. Iota is expected to dissipate by 48 hours, with the remnant mid-level circulation possibly drifting westward into the eastern North Pacific basin. The new NHC track forecast is essentially just an extension of the previous advisory track, and closely follows a blend of the consensus models TVCN, NOAA-HCCA, and FSSE. Additional rapid weakening is forecast for the next 36 hours as Iota moves farther inland over the rugged terrain of Nicaragua and Honduras. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and closely follows the Decay-SHIPS intensity guidance. Although Hurricane Iota has moved inland, damaging winds are occurring inland, and also along the northeastern coast of Nicaragua, where a significant storm surge of 5-10 ft is still likely occurring. In addition to the destructive winds and storm surge, there will be the potential for up to 30 inches of rainfall. The situation is exacerbated by the fact that Iota is moving across the same general location that Category 4 Hurricane Eta did a little less than two weeks ago. Key Messages: 1. Iota is still a significant hurricane. Damaging winds and a life-threatening storm surge are expected along portions of the coast of northeastern Nicaragua during the next several hours, where a hurricane warning is in effect. 2. Life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is expected through Thursday across portions of Central America due to heavy rainfall from Iota. Flooding and mudslides across portions of Honduras, Nicaragua and Guatemala could be exacerbated by Hurricane Etas recent effects there, resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 13.7N 84.3W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND 12H 17/1800Z 13.8N 85.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 24H 18/0600Z 13.8N 87.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 18/1800Z 13.7N 89.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Hurricane Iota Forecast Advisory Number 16

2020-11-17 09:38:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE NOV 17 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 170838 TCMAT1 HURRICANE IOTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020 0900 UTC TUE NOV 17 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PROVIDENCIA AND SAN ANDRES ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO SANDY BAY SIRPI * THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM SOUTH OF SANDY BAY SIRPI TO BLUEFIELDS * THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA TO THE GUATEMALA/HONDURAS BORDER * BAY ISLANDS A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IOTA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 84.3W AT 17/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT.......150NE 120SE 90SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 0SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 84.3W AT 17/0900Z AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 83.9W FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 13.8N 85.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 60SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 13.8N 87.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...130NE 0SE 0SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 13.7N 89.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 84.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 17/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Hurricane Iota Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16

2020-11-17 09:38:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE NOV 17 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 170838 PWSAT1 HURRICANE IOTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020 0900 UTC TUE NOV 17 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS ...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BELIZE CITY 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GUANAJA 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PUERTO CABEZAS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BLUEFIELDS 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN ANDRES 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Hurricane Iota Public Advisory Number 16

2020-11-17 09:38:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 AM EST Tue Nov 17 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 170838 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Iota Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 400 AM EST Tue Nov 17 2020 ...IOTA RAPIDLY WEAKENING OVER NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH FLOODING, AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 84.3W ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM ENE OF EL PIA NICARAGUA ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WSW OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Colombia has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Providencia and San Andres Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Sandy Bay Sirpi * The coast of northeastern Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Bluefields * The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca to the Guatemala/Honduras border * Bay Islands A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should have already been completed. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of Iota. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Iota was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 84.3 West. Iota is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next day or so. On the forecast track, Iota will move farther inland across northern Nicaragua today, and move across southern Honduras tonight and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Iota is now a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional rapid weakening is expected today into Wednesday, and Iota is forecast to dissipate over Central America by Wednesday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). Puerto Cabezas airport in Nicaragua recently reported a sustained wind of 51 mph (82 km/h) and a gust to 77 mph (124 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 5 to 10 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Significant wind damage is occurring near Iota's eyewall and these winds will spread farther inland across northern Nicaragua during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Tropical Storm Warning areas in Nicaragua and Honduras. RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Thursday: Honduras, northern Nicaragua, southeast and central Guatemala and southern Belize: 10 to 20 inches (250 to 500 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 30 inches (750 mm). El Salvador and Panama: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm). This rainfall will lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. Southern Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm). SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect much of the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM EST. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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