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Tropical Storm Iota Public Advisory Number 17A
2020-11-17 18:38:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1200 PM CST Tue Nov 17 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 171738 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Iota Intermediate Advisory Number 17A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 1200 PM CST Tue Nov 17 2020 ...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA POSSIBLE FROM IOTA THROUGH THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 85.7W ABOUT 105 MI...160 KM E OF TEGUCIGALPA HONDURAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...105 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bluefields Nicaragua to the Guatemala/Honduras border * Bay Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of Iota. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iota was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 85.7 West. Iota is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). The storm will move farther inland across northern Nicaragua today, and move across southern Honduras tonight before dissipating near El Salvador early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (105 km/h) with higher gusts. Iota should weaken to a tropical depression this evening, and degenerate into a remnant low pressure area on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. WIND: Strong winds are occuring near the center of Iota and these winds will spread farther inland across northern Nicaragua and southern Honduras during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are also occurring in the Tropical Storm Warning areas along the coast in Nicaragua and Honduras. RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Thursday: Honduras, northern Nicaragua, southeast and central Guatemala and southern Belize: 10 to 20 inches (250 to 500 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 30 inches (750 mm). El Salvador and Panama: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm). This rainfall will lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. Southern Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm). SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect much of the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Iota Forecast Discussion Number 17
2020-11-17 15:41:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM CST Tue Nov 17 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 171441 TCDAT1 Hurricane Iota Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 900 AM CST Tue Nov 17 2020 Satellite images indicate that Iota continues to weaken over land with warming cloud tops near the center. It still has a small core, however, so the initial wind speed will be lowered to 65 kt on this advisory, in line with the Decay-SHIPS model. Further weakening is expected today as Iota moves westward at about 10 kt, with Iota becoming a tropical storm this afternoon, and a tropical depression tonight. Iota should degenerate into a remnant low near El Salvador by tomorrow due to the rugged terrain of central America. While the winds of Iota are weakening, there are still life- threatening hazards ongoing for central America, including flash flooding and mud slides, which could result in potentially catastrophic effects, especially when compounded upon Hurricane Eta's destruction from a couple of weeks ago. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is expected through Thursday across portions of Central America due to heavy rainfall from Iota. Flooding and mudslides across portions of Honduras, Nicaragua and Guatemala could be exacerbated by Hurricane Etas recent effects there, resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts. 2. Strong winds, primarily close to the center of Iota and along the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras, are still expected for the next several hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 13.7N 85.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 12H 18/0000Z 13.7N 86.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 18/1200Z 13.7N 88.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Iota Graphics
2020-11-17 15:40:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Nov 2020 14:40:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Nov 2020 14:40:56 GMT
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Hurricane Iota Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2020-11-17 15:40:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE NOV 17 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 171440 PWSAT1 HURRICANE IOTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020 1500 UTC TUE NOV 17 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS ...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUERTO BARRIOS 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUANAJA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Hurricane Iota (AT1/AL312020)
2020-11-17 15:39:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IOTA COULD PRODUCE POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO... As of 9:00 AM CST Tue Nov 17 the center of Iota was located near 13.7, -85.2 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 980 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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