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Tropical Storm Iota Public Advisory Number 18A
2020-11-18 00:44:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 600 PM CST Tue Nov 17 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 172343 CCA TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Iota Intermediate Advisory Number 18A...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 600 PM CST Tue Nov 17 2020 Correct Eta to Iota in headline ...CENTER OF IOTA MOVING INTO SOUTHERN HONDURAS... ...THREAT OF CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM IOTA... SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 86.9W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SE OF TEGUCIGALPA HONDURAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...80 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Honduras * Bay Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iota was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 86.9 West. Iota is moving toward the west near 12 mph. The center of the storm will move into southern Honduras tonight before dissipating near El Salvador on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (80 km/h) with higher gusts. Iota should weaken to a tropical depression this evening or tonight and degenerate into a remnant low pressure area on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. WIND: Strong winds are occuring near the center of Iota and these winds will spread farther inland across southern Honduras during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are also occurring in the Tropical Storm Warning areas along the coast in Honduras. RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Thursday: Honduras, northern Nicaragua, southeast and central Guatemala and southern Belize: 10 to 20 inches (250 to 500 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 30 inches (750 mm). El Salvador and Panama: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm). This rainfall will lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. Southern Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm). SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect much of the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Iota Graphics
2020-11-18 00:36:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Nov 2020 23:36:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Nov 2020 21:24:28 GMT
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Tropical Storm Iota Forecast Discussion Number 18
2020-11-17 21:43:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 PM CST Tue Nov 17 2020 797 WTNT41 KNHC 172043 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Iota Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 300 PM CST Tue Nov 17 2020 The cloud pattern of Iota has slowly degraded during the day, with warming of the cloud tops, but it has remained fairly well organized for a system that's been over land for about 18 hours. The initial wind speed is lowered to 50 kt using the Decay-SHIPS guidance. Iota will encounter higher terrain soon while it moves westward at about 10 kt, so it should quickly weaken tonight, and it will probably degenerate into a weak low near El Salvador overnight. None of the available guidance show regeneration in the eastern Pacific, perhaps due to cooler SSTs with all of the recent gap wind events, and plenty of drier air in the vicinity. Iota is still expected to produce very serious hazards while it is over central America, including flash flooding and mud slides, These hazards could result in potentially catastrophic effects, especially when compounded upon Hurricane Eta's destruction from a couple of weeks ago. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is expected through Thursday across portions of Central America due to heavy rainfall from Iota. Flooding and mudslides across portions of Honduras, Nicaragua and Guatemala could be exacerbated by Hurricane Etas recent effects there, resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts. 2. Strong winds, primarily close to the center of Iota and along the coast of Honduras, are still expected for the next several hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 13.7N 86.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 12H 18/0600Z 13.6N 87.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Iota Graphics
2020-11-17 21:43:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Nov 2020 20:43:05 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Nov 2020 20:43:05 GMT
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Tropical Storm Iota Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2020-11-17 21:42:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE NOV 17 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 172042 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM IOTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020 2100 UTC TUE NOV 17 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IOTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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