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Tropical Depression Fifteen Graphics
2019-10-15 04:41:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 15 Oct 2019 02:41:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 15 Oct 2019 02:41:53 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression Fifteen (AT5/AL152019)
2019-10-15 04:40:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS TO THE EASTERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS ON TUESDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Oct 14 the center of Fifteen was located near 14.5, -20.8 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Fifteen Public Advisory Number 2
2019-10-15 04:40:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Oct 14 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 150240 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fifteen Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152019 1100 PM AST Mon Oct 14 2019 ...POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS TO THE EASTERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS ON TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 20.8W ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM ESE OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should closely monitor the progress of the depression since a Tropical Storm Warning could be required for a portion of the islands on Tuesday. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 20.8 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to pass over or near the eastern Cabo Verde Islands on Tuesday, and then move near or north of the central Cabo Verde Islands Tuesday night and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on Tuesday. Weakening is forecast to begin by Wednesday morning when the cyclone will be moving away from the Cabo Verde Islands. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches across the Cabo Verde Islands, with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches in the higher terrain, especially across the eastern portion of the islands. This rainfall may cause flash flooding and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions could occur across the eastern Cabo Verde Islands on Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Fifteen Forecast Discussion Number 2
2019-10-15 04:40:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Oct 14 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 150240 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Fifteen Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152019 1100 PM AST Mon Oct 14 2019 The depression has become somewhat less organized this evening. A band of deep convection has developed over the far northern portion of the circulation, but there is little convection over the remainder of the large circulation. A recent partial ASCAT-C overpass suggests that the low-level center is located well southwest of the mid-level turning noted in infrared satellite pictures, and although the scatterometer did not sample the entire circulation, it appears that the 30-kt initial intensity may be generous. The depression is moving northwestward (320 degrees) at about 9 kt. While there is a chance that the center will re-form farther north near the mid-level center and area of deep convection, the overall motion of the system is expected to be northwestward during the next day or two around the southwestward periphery of a deep-layer ridge over western Africa. The models are in generally good agreement on this overall scenario, but since the system is still in the formative stage there is a fair amount of cross-track spread. After 48 hours, the cyclone should turn toward the left as it weakens and is steered by the low-level flow. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted north of the previous track, but is not quite as far north as the ECMWF and the multi-model consensus. Deep convection is likely to return overnight during the typical nocturnal convective maximum, and low shear and warm SSTs along the path of the cyclone favor strengthening during the next day or so. The large and sprawling structure of the system, however, suggest any intensification should be slow to occur, and the new NHC intensity forecast has been reduced slightly from the previous advisory. By 36 hours, increasing southwesterly shear and cooler SSTs are expected to cause the cyclone to weaken and the system is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low in 2 to 3 days. The NHC intensity forecast most closely follows the statistical SHIPS/LGEM guidance. Regardless of whether the depression becomes a tropical storm or not before passing near the Cabo Verde Islands, the primary threat from this system is the potential for locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding in those islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 14.5N 20.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 15.5N 21.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 16.8N 22.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 18.1N 23.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 19.3N 24.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 21.6N 27.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Fifteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2019-10-15 04:40:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 15 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 150240 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152019 0300 UTC TUE OCT 15 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 20.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT RIBIERA GRANDE 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SANTA MARIA CV 34 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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