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Remnants of Fifteen Forecast Advisory Number 7
2019-10-16 10:32:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 16 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 160832 TCMAT5 REMNANTS OF FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152019 0900 UTC WED OCT 16 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 24.1W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 24.1W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 23.8W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 24.1W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression Fifteen Graphics
2019-10-16 04:36:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 16 Oct 2019 02:36:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 16 Oct 2019 03:24:16 GMT
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Tropical Depression Fifteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2019-10-16 04:35:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 16 2019 067 FONT15 KNHC 160235 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152019 0300 UTC WED OCT 16 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 23.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT RIBIERA GRANDE 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Summary for Tropical Depression Fifteen (AT5/AL152019)
2019-10-16 04:35:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO MOVE NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS... As of 11:00 PM AST Tue Oct 15 the center of Fifteen was located near 16.8, -23.7 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Fifteen Public Advisory Number 6
2019-10-16 04:35:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Oct 15 2019 036 WTNT35 KNHC 160235 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fifteen Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152019 1100 PM AST Tue Oct 15 2019 ...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO MOVE NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 23.7W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM NNE OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of the depression. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 23.7 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). The depression is forecast to move on a west-northwestward to northwestward heading at a similar forward speed during the next day or two. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated, and the system is forecast to become a remnant low on Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches) based on data from the Amilcar Cabral International Airport (GVAC) in the Cabo Verde Islands. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches across the eastern and northern Cabo Verde Islands through Wednesday. This rainfall could cause flash flooding and mudslides. WIND: Tropical-storm-force wind gusts could occur across the eastern Cabo Verde Islands through Wednesday, especially over high terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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