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Post-Tropical Cyclone SEYMOUR Forecast Discussion Number 21
2016-10-28 10:35:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI OCT 28 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 280835 TCDEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SEYMOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 200 AM PDT FRI OCT 28 2016 The cyclone has lacked organized deep convection within 60-100 n mi of its center for over 12 hours, and no longer qualifies as a tropical cyclone. Since Seymour has become a post-tropical remnant low, advisories are being discontinued. Subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB along with scatterometer data indicated an intensity of near 35 kt at 0600 UTC. Assuming some additional spindown of the cyclone since then, the advisory intensity is set at 30 kt. The low will be moving through an extremely hostile environment of southwesterly shear of 40-45 kt and SSTs cooler than 23 deg C during the next couple of days. These environmental factors should cause the remnant low to dissipate in a couple of days. This is also shown by the global model predictions. The low has turned toward a slightly east of northward heading, and the initial motion is about 010/7 kt. A north-northeastward motion, ahead of an approaching frontal system, is expected over the next day or so. The official track forecast is adjusted a little to the left of the previous one, toward the latest model consensus. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 22.4N 122.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 28/1800Z 23.3N 122.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 29/0600Z 24.5N 121.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 29/1800Z 25.8N 121.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/0600Z 27.5N 121.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone SEYMOUR (EP5/EP202016)
2016-10-28 10:32:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SEYMOUR BECOMES POST-TROPICAL... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Fri Oct 28 the center of SEYMOUR was located near 22.4, -122.8 with movement N at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone SEYMOUR Public Advisory Number 21
2016-10-28 10:32:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI OCT 28 2016 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 280832 TCPEP5 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SEYMOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 200 AM PDT FRI OCT 28 2016 ...SEYMOUR BECOMES POST-TROPICAL... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.4N 122.8W ABOUT 820 MI...1325 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Seymour was located near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 122.8 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A north-northeastward motion is expected to begin later today, and continue into Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and the system will likely dissipate by Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Post-Tropical Cyclone SEYMOUR Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2016-10-28 10:32:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 28 2016 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 280832 PWSEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SEYMOUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 0900 UTC FRI OCT 28 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SEYMOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Post-Tropical Cyclone SEYMOUR Forecast Advisory Number 21
2016-10-28 10:31:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 28 2016 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 280831 TCMEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SEYMOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 0900 UTC FRI OCT 28 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 122.8W AT 28/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 122.8W AT 28/0900Z AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 122.9W FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 23.3N 122.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 24.5N 121.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 25.8N 121.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 27.5N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N 122.8W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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