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Hurricane SEYMOUR Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2016-10-26 22:39:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 26 2016 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 262039 PWSEP5 HURRICANE SEYMOUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 2100 UTC WED OCT 26 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SEYMOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 2 6( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Hurricane SEYMOUR Forecast Advisory Number 15
2016-10-26 22:38:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 26 2016 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 262038 TCMEP5 HURRICANE SEYMOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 2100 UTC WED OCT 26 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 121.2W AT 26/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 5SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 121.2W AT 26/2100Z AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 120.7W FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 18.8N 122.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 20.6N 123.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 22.3N 122.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 23.5N 121.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 121.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Summary for Hurricane SEYMOUR (EP5/EP202016)
2016-10-26 22:38:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SEYMOUR BEGINNING TO QUICKLY WEAKEN... As of 2:00 PM PDT Wed Oct 26 the center of SEYMOUR was located near 17.5, -121.2 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 958 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.
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ep5ep202016
Hurricane SEYMOUR Public Advisory Number 15
2016-10-26 22:38:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT WED OCT 26 2016 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 262038 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE SEYMOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 200 PM PDT WED OCT 26 2016 ...SEYMOUR BEGINNING TO QUICKLY WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 121.2W ABOUT 820 MI...1320 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Seymour was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 121.2 West. Seymour is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest and north with a decrease in forward speed on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Seymour is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Continued weakening is likely, and Seymour should weaken to a tropical storm on Thursday and a remnant low pressure system on Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Hurricane SEYMOUR Forecast Discussion Number 14
2016-10-26 16:39:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT WED OCT 26 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 261439 TCDEP5 HURRICANE SEYMOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 800 AM PDT WED OCT 26 2016 Seymour continues to maintain an impressive central dense overcast, consisting of very deep convection around a 15 n mi well-defined eye. However, the distribution of convection has become slightly asymmetric since the last advisory, with the greatest coverage to the north and east of the center. The convective asymmetry is likely indicative of some increase in southwesterly shear. A blend of the latest Dvorak T- and CI-numbers, including UW-CIMSS ADT values, is used to lower the initial intensity estimate of 120 kt. Seymour is living on borrowed time. A large mid- to upper-level trough seen in water vapor imagery upstream of the cyclone should cause a considerable increase in southwesterly shear within 24 hours. By that time, Seymour will already have reached much cooler waters. This should result in weakening, with the rate of filling only increasing with time. By 36 hours, the shear should become extremely strong and cause the vortex to shear apart, with the middle and upper portions of the circulation moving well to the north or northeast of the low-level center. The official forecast shows Seymour becoming a post-tropical remnant low in 48 hours in general agreement with global models that depict this decoupling as soon as 36 to 42 hours. The NHC intensity forecast shows about the same rate of weakening as the previous one and is close to the multi-model consensus. The initial motion estimate is 290/13. Seymour has begun to gain a little more latitude recently as it nears the western periphery of a mid-level ridge west of the Baja California peninsula. The cyclone's motion should slow and become northwesterly soon and then shift north-northwestward and northward in 24 to 36 hours as Seymour becomes embedded in the flow between the high to the northeast and the trough to the northwest. Once Seymour becomes a shallow system in 48 hours, the remnant low will slow further and turn north-northeastward until dissipation. The NHC track forecast is only slightly to the left of the previous one after 24 hours and a little faster during the remnant low phase. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 16.9N 120.2W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 18.0N 121.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 19.7N 122.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 21.1N 122.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 22.2N 122.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/1200Z 23.7N 121.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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