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Hurricane SEYMOUR Public Advisory Number 17
2016-10-27 10:36:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT THU OCT 27 2016 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 270836 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE SEYMOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 200 AM PDT THU OCT 27 2016 ...SEYMOUR CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 122.1W ABOUT 820 MI...1320 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Seymour was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 122.1 West. Seymour is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn to the north is expected today, followed by a northeastward motion on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected, and Seymour is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm this afternoon and become a remnant low pressure system on Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane SEYMOUR Forecast Advisory Number 17
2016-10-27 10:36:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 27 2016 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 270836 TCMEP5 HURRICANE SEYMOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 0900 UTC THU OCT 27 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 122.1W AT 27/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 5SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 122.1W AT 27/0900Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 122.0W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 21.0N 122.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 22.6N 122.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 24.0N 121.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 25.3N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 122.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane SEYMOUR Graphics
2016-10-27 05:06:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 27 Oct 2016 02:36:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 27 Oct 2016 03:03:36 GMT
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Hurricane SEYMOUR Forecast Discussion Number 16
2016-10-27 04:35:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT WED OCT 26 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 270235 TCDEP5 HURRICANE SEYMOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 800 PM PDT WED OCT 26 2016 Seymour is weakening rapidly. Although a small eye was still apparent in microwave data a few hours ago, this feature is no longer evident in the latest geostationary satellite images. In addition, the convective pattern has become asymmetric due to increasing southwesterly shear. The initial wind speed is lowered to 95 kt based on Dvorak final T- and CI-numbers from TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin. The hurricane is moving across the 26 deg C isotherm and it is expected to move over even colder waters during the next couple of days. These unfavorable oceanic conditions combined with drier air and a significant increase in wind shear should cause Seymour to continue to rapidly weaken. The NHC intensity forecast shows a very fast weakening trend, predicting Seymour to fall below hurricane strength on Thursday and degenerate to a remnant low on Friday. This forecast lies near the middle of the intensity guidance envelope. The hurricane has made the expected turn to the northwest, and is now moving 320 degrees at 12 kt. A large deep-layer trough located several hundred miles offshore of the U.S. west coast is expected to move eastward, causing Seymour to slow down and turn northward and then northeastward during the next couple of days. The track models are in good agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies near the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 18.7N 121.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 20.1N 122.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 21.8N 122.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 23.2N 122.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 29/0000Z 24.3N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane SEYMOUR Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2016-10-27 04:34:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 27 2016 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 270234 PWSEP5 HURRICANE SEYMOUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 0300 UTC THU OCT 27 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SEYMOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 125W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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