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Tropical Storm SEYMOUR Forecast Advisory Number 20
2016-10-28 04:32:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 28 2016 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 280232 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM SEYMOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 0300 UTC FRI OCT 28 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 123.0W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..135NE 75SE 75SW 135NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 123.0W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 123.1W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 23.1N 122.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 24.2N 121.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 25.5N 121.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 27.2N 120.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 123.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm SEYMOUR Graphics
2016-10-27 22:32:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 27 Oct 2016 20:32:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 27 Oct 2016 20:31:33 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm SEYMOUR (EP5/EP202016)
2016-10-27 22:31:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SEYMOUR WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON FRIDAY... As of 2:00 PM PDT Thu Oct 27 the center of SEYMOUR was located near 21.2, -123.1 with movement NNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm SEYMOUR Public Advisory Number 19
2016-10-27 22:31:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU OCT 27 2016 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 272031 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM SEYMOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 200 PM PDT THU OCT 27 2016 ...SEYMOUR WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.2N 123.1W ABOUT 855 MI...1370 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Seymour was located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 123.1 West. Seymour is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected this afternoon, with a turn toward the northeast expected tonight or on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued rapid weakening is forecast, and Seymour is likely to become a remnant low pressure system on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm SEYMOUR Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2016-10-27 22:31:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 27 2016 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 272031 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM SEYMOUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 2100 UTC THU OCT 27 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SEYMOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 10(12) 4(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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