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Tropical Storm SEYMOUR Graphics
2016-10-28 05:03:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 28 Oct 2016 02:34:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 28 Oct 2016 03:03:35 GMT
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Tropical Storm SEYMOUR Forecast Discussion Number 20
2016-10-28 04:34:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT THU OCT 27 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 280234 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM SEYMOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 800 PM PDT THU OCT 27 2016 A small area of deep convection has been ongoing more than 100 n mi north-northeast of Seymour's center during the past few hours, but it's not really enough to be considered organized. Dvorak Current Intensity numbers from TAFB and SAB decreased to 3.0/45 kt at 0000 UTC, and more recent ADT estimates are even lower. The advisory intensity is therefore set at 40 kt. Strong shear and colder waters ahead of Seymour should continue the fast weakening trend, and the cyclone is likely to be declared a remnant low in 12 hours or less due to a lack of organized deep convection. Based on global model fields, the remnant low is expected to dissipate just after 48 hours. Seymour has turned northward with an initial motion of 360/9 kt. As a shallow, convection-less low, Seymour is expected to turn northeastward ahead of a cold front during the next 24 hours and then back to the north-northeast by 48 hours. The new NHC track forecast is nearly identical to the previous advisory during the first 24 hours, but is then nudged westward at 36 and 48 hours in line with a general westward shift in the guidance at those times. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 22.0N 123.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 23.1N 122.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 29/0000Z 24.2N 121.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 29/1200Z 25.5N 121.1W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/0000Z 27.2N 120.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Storm SEYMOUR (EP5/EP202016)
2016-10-28 04:33:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SEYMOUR SEEING MORE COLD WATER AND STRONG SHEAR... ...RAPID WEAKENING CONTINUES... As of 8:00 PM PDT Thu Oct 27 the center of SEYMOUR was located near 22.0, -123.0 with movement N at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm SEYMOUR Public Advisory Number 20
2016-10-28 04:33:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT THU OCT 27 2016 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 280233 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM SEYMOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 800 PM PDT THU OCT 27 2016 ...SEYMOUR SEEING MORE COLD WATER AND STRONG SHEAR... ...RAPID WEAKENING CONTINUES... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.0N 123.0W ABOUT 840 MI...1350 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Seymour was located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 123.0 West. Seymour is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). A north-northeast or northeast motion is expected to begin tonight and continue through Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Fast weakening is forecast to continue, and Seymour is expected to become a remnant low early Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm SEYMOUR Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2016-10-28 04:33:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 28 2016 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 280233 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM SEYMOUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 0300 UTC FRI OCT 28 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SEYMOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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