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Hurricane KARINA Graphics
2014-08-23 05:11:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 23 Aug 2014 02:51:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 23 Aug 2014 03:05:46 GMT
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Hurricane KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 41
2014-08-23 04:50:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 230250 TCDEP1 HURRICANE KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 800 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014 Karina has completed a loop and at 0000 UTC, it was centered at nearly the same location as it was 3 days ago at the same time. Its appearance on satellite has improved during the evening and a small eye-like feature can be seen in visible imagery. A corresponding warm spot in IR imagery has also been intermittently present. A blend of Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB supports raising the initial intensity to 70 kt. The UW-CIMSS ADT, CIRA SATCON product, and a 2255 AMSU pass all support intensities of at least 70 kt. The recent intensification trend is expected to be short-lived since the cyclone is tracking toward cooler waters. The GFS and ECMWF suggest that the environment for the next 48 hours will otherwise be not particularly hostile, so only slow weakening is forecast. After that, stronger shear and a drier environment should speed up the weakening process, and Karina is expected to become a remnant low by 96 hours. The initial motion is estimated to be 045/6. There is very little change to the forecast for the first 48 hours, and Karina is still expected to move toward the northeast or east-northeast while interacting with the large circulation of Tropical Storm Lowell. After Lowell passes in about 3 days, Karina is expected to turn more toward the north. There is considerably more uncertainty in the forecast beyond 72 hours. Some models forecast that Karina will turn back toward the west as a mid-level ridge builds east of Lowell. Others forecast that Karina, or its remnants, will move close enough to the circulation of Marie to initiate a second Fujiwhara-like interaction, resulting in a more southerly motion. The official forecast still shows a westward track, but has been slowed down and is now closer to splitting these two scenarios. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 16.2N 134.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 16.8N 134.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 17.6N 132.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 18.2N 131.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 18.7N 129.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 20.0N 128.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 27/0000Z 20.7N 130.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 28/0000Z 21.0N 132.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky/Beven
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Hurricane KARINA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 41
2014-08-23 04:48:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 23 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 230248 PWSEP1 HURRICANE KARINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 0300 UTC SAT AUG 23 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 134.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY/BEVEN
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Summary for Hurricane KARINA (EP1/EP112014)
2014-08-23 04:48:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KARINA COMPLETES A LOOP AND STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... As of 8:00 PM PDT Fri Aug 22 the center of KARINA was located near 16.2, -134.9 with movement NE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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Hurricane KARINA Public Advisory Number 41
2014-08-23 04:48:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 230248 TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 800 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014 ...KARINA COMPLETES A LOOP AND STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 134.9W ABOUT 1350 MI...2170 KM E OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 1690 MI...2715 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 134.9 WEST. KARINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD OR EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TOMORROW AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY/BEVEN
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