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Summary for Tropical Storm KARINA (EP1/EP112014)

2014-08-22 10:58:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...KARINA FORECAST TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Fri Aug 22 the center of KARINA was located near 14.8, -135.8 with movement E at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

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Tropical Storm KARINA Public Advisory Number 38

2014-08-22 10:58:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 220858 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 200 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014 ...KARINA FORECAST TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 135.8W ABOUT 1315 MI...2120 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 1780 MI...2865 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.8 WEST. KARINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Tropical Storm KARINA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 38

2014-08-22 10:58:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 220858 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 0900 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Advisory Number 38

2014-08-22 10:57:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 220857 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 0900 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 135.8W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 85 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 135.8W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 135.9W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.3N 135.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 16.2N 134.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 17.0N 133.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 17.6N 132.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 18.5N 129.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 20.5N 129.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 22.5N 131.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 135.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Tropical Storm KARINA Graphics

2014-08-22 05:11:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 22 Aug 2014 02:37:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 22 Aug 2014 03:05:46 GMT

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