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Tropical Storm KARINA Public Advisory Number 35
2014-08-21 16:34:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 211434 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 800 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014 ...KARINA RESTRENGTHENS A LITTLE... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.0N 136.9W ABOUT 1240 MI...2000 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 1840 MI...2965 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.9 WEST. KARINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD THE EAST AND NORTHEAST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN IN A DAY OR SO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Advisory Number 35
2014-08-21 16:33:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 21 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 211433 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 1500 UTC THU AUG 21 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 136.9W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 180 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 136.9W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 136.9W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 14.8N 136.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 15.0N 135.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.6N 135.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.4N 134.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 18.5N 131.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 50SE 30SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 23.0N 129.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 27.5N 131.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 136.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm KARINA Graphics
2014-08-21 10:38:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 21 Aug 2014 08:38:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 21 Aug 2014 08:37:44 GMT
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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 34
2014-08-21 10:38:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 210838 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 200 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014 Karina is being affected by moderate-to-strong vertical wind shear, with the low-level center located on the northeastern edge of the deep convection. Subjective and objective T-numbers have decreased from 6 hours ago, and a blend of the T-numbers and CI numbers supports bringing the maximum winds down to 45 kt. Water vapor imagery shows an expansive area of dry mid-/upper-level air surging southward on the west side of Tropical Storm Lowell toward Karina. This flow will likely continue to disrupt Karina's structure during the next day or so, and drier air may also begin to infiltrate into the cyclone's circulation. In addition, Karina will be moving over sub-26C water in about 3 days. All these factors argue for little change in intensity during the next 48 hours, followed by weakening and degeneration to a remnant low by day 4. The updated NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one, mainly due to the lower initial intensity, and it is fairly close to the intensity consensus. Recent microwave images suggest that Karina has been drifting east-southeastward, and the initial motion estimate is 110/2 kt. The cyclone is likely to drift southeastward and east-southeastward for the next 24 hours. After that time, the distance between Karina and Lowell will be decreasing, and Karina will respond by accelerating northeastward and then northward around the east side of Lowell beyond 48 hours. The track guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, and no significant changes from the previous NHC forecast were required on this advisory. Although a 5-day point is given, Karina will likely be in the process of becoming absorbed by Lowell, and it is possible that a surface center may no longer exist at that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 15.6N 136.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 15.3N 136.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 15.1N 135.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 15.6N 134.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 16.5N 133.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 24/0600Z 18.5N 130.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 25/0600Z 22.5N 128.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 26/0600Z 28.5N 131.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Storm KARINA (EP1/EP112014)
2014-08-21 10:37:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KARINA DRIFTING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND A LITTLE WEAKER... As of 2:00 AM PDT Thu Aug 21 the center of KARINA was located near 15.6, -136.2 with movement ESE at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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