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Post-Tropical Cyclone AMANDA Forecast Discussion Number 29
2014-05-29 22:35:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU MAY 29 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 292035 TCDEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 200 PM PDT THU MAY 29 2014 Satellite images indicate that the low-level center of Amanda has become diffuse and could be opening up into a trough. In addition, organized deep convection has been absent near the center of circulation for most of the day. Therefore, Amanda is now declared a remnant low, and this is the last advisory on this system issued by the National Hurricane Center. The remnant low is moving eastward at about 7 kt. The weak cyclone is expected to slow down and become nearly stationary on Thursday, before turning southwestward on Friday. Dissipation is expected to occur in 3 to 4 days, following the guidance of the GFS and ECMWF models. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 16.2N 109.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 30/0600Z 16.5N 108.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 30/1800Z 16.8N 108.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 31/0600Z 16.8N 108.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 31/1800Z 16.7N 108.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/1800Z 16.0N 109.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone AMANDA (EP1/EP012014)
2014-05-29 22:34:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...AMANDA DEGENERATES TO A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 2:00 PM PDT Thu May 29 the center of AMANDA was located near 16.2, -109.0 with movement E at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone AMANDA Public Advisory Number 29
2014-05-29 22:34:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU MAY 29 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 292034 TCPEP1 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AMANDA ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 200 PM PDT THU MAY 29 2014 ...AMANDA DEGENERATES TO A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 109.0W ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT AMANDA HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND HAS DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW. AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AMANDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.0 WEST. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Post-Tropical Cyclone AMANDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 29
2014-05-29 22:34:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU MAY 29 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 292034 PWSEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AMANDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 2100 UTC THU MAY 29 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AMANDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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amanda
Post-Tropical Cyclone AMANDA Forecast Advisory Number 29
2014-05-29 22:33:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU MAY 29 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 292033 TCMEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AMANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 2100 UTC THU MAY 29 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 109.0W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 109.0W AT 29/2100Z AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 109.2W FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 16.5N 108.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 16.8N 108.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 16.8N 108.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 16.7N 108.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 16.0N 109.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 109.0W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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