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Post-Tropical Cyclone NARDA Forecast Discussion Number 16
2013-10-10 16:34:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT THU OCT 10 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 101434 TCDEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013 800 AM PDT THU OCT 10 2013 NARDA HAS BECOME A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS AND HAS DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN SPORADIC AND LESS PERSISTENT. ALSO...THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE FALLEN BELOW WHAT WOULD BE EXPECTED FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LOW COULD STILL OCCASIONALLY GENERATE A FEW PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...BECAUSE THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH SHEAR AND STABLE AIR...IT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR SO WHILE IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 16.3N 129.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 11/0000Z 16.2N 129.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 11/1200Z 15.5N 130.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Post-Tropical Cyclone NARDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2013-10-10 16:34:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 10 2013 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 101434 PWSEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NARDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013 1500 UTC THU OCT 10 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NARDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 14 25 NA NA NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 79 56 NA NA NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 7 19 NA NA NA NA NA HURRICANE X X NA NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X X NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X NA NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 20KT 20KT NA NA NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone NARDA (EP4/EP142013)
2013-10-10 16:33:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NARDA DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Thu Oct 10 the center of NARDA was located near 16.3, -129.1 with movement W at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone NARDA Public Advisory Number 16
2013-10-10 16:33:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT THU OCT 10 2013 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 101433 TCPEP4 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NARDA ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013 800 AM PDT THU OCT 10 2013 ...NARDA DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 129.1W ABOUT 1330 MI...2140 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NARDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.1 WEST. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE REMNANT LOW IS FOECAST TO DISSIPATE IN DAY OR TWO. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Post-Tropical Cyclone NARDA Forecast Advisory Number 16
2013-10-10 16:33:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 10 2013 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 101433 TCMEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013 1500 UTC THU OCT 10 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 129.1W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 129.1W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 128.9W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 16.2N 129.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 15.5N 130.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 129.1W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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