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Post-Tropical Cyclone LORENZO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2013-10-24 16:50:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 24 2013 000 FONT13 KNHC 241450 PWSAT3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LORENZO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013 1500 UTC THU OCT 24 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 5 21 24 NA NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 75 59 52 NA NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 21 20 23 NA NA NA NA HURRICANE X X 1 NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X X 1 NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 25KT 20KT 20KT NA NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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lorenzo
Post-Tropical Cyclone PRISCILLA Graphics
2013-10-17 05:08:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 17 Oct 2013 02:33:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 17 Oct 2013 03:04:45 GMT
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cyclone
posttropical
Post-Tropical Cyclone PRISCILLA Forecast Discussion Number 12
2013-10-17 04:33:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT WED OCT 16 2013 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 170233 TCDEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162013 800 PM PDT WED OCT 16 2013 ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN ABSENT FROM PRISCILLA FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS. AS A RESULT...PRISCILLA NO LONGER MEETS THE DEFINITION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS NOW A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SHEAR INCREASES AND THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER SSTS. THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 72 HOURS...BUT THIS COULD OCCUR EVEN SOONER. THE CENTER OF PRISCILLA HAS LOST SOME DEFINITION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 285/06. THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD SOON TURN WESTWARD AND THEN WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES BETWEEN THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 18.7N 120.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 17/1200Z 18.8N 122.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 18/0000Z 18.7N 123.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/1200Z 18.4N 124.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/0000Z 18.0N 125.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Post-Tropical Cyclone PRISCILLA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2013-10-17 04:32:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 17 2013 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 170232 PWSEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PRISCILLA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162013 0300 UTC THU OCT 17 2013 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PRISCILLA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 6 24 27 28 NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 78 56 48 44 NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 17 19 24 27 NA NA NA HURRICANE X X 1 1 NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X X 1 1 NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 25KT 20KT 20KT 20KT NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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cyclone
Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone PRISCILLA (EP1/EP162013)
2013-10-17 04:32:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...PRISCILLA BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Wed Oct 16 the center of PRISCILLA was located near 18.7, -120.9 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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cyclone
posttropical
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