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Hurricane Kenneth Forecast Advisory Number 16
2017-08-22 10:35:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 22 2017 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 220835 TCMEP3 HURRICANE KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132017 0900 UTC TUE AUG 22 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 132.5W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 132.5W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 132.3W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 21.3N 133.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 23.2N 134.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 25.1N 135.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 26.6N 136.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 28.7N 136.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 30.0N 137.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 31.0N 138.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 132.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane Kenneth Graphics
2017-08-22 04:46:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 22 Aug 2017 02:46:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 22 Aug 2017 03:25:11 GMT
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Hurricane Kenneth Forecast Discussion Number 15
2017-08-22 04:40:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Aug 21 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 220240 TCDEP3 Hurricane Kenneth Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 800 PM PDT Mon Aug 21 2017 Kenneth's previously distinct eye is clouding over as its eye temperature cools, while the surrounding eyewall convection warms and weakens. Correspondingly, the Dvorak classifications from TAFB, SAB, and ADT have dropped and a blend of them suggests an intensity of 95 kt at 00Z. Continued deterioration of the convective structure is justification for maximum winds of 90 kt at advisory time. While no recent size observations have been available, earlier AMSU estimates along with the limited extent of the cold cloud canopy suggest that Kenneth is a small tropical cyclone with tropical-storm-force winds extending out about 80 nm from the center on average. Kenneth should continue to weaken - perhaps rapidly - under the influence of cool to cold SSTs, dry and less unstable air, and increasing southwesterly vertical shear. Kenneth should likely lose all of its organized deep convection in 2-3 days, signaling its transformation to a post-tropical cyclone at that time. The official intensity forecast is based upon the tightly packed dynamical and statistical model guidance and is a bit lower than the previous advisory. The hurricane is moving toward the northwest at about 9 kt, as it rounds the southwestern periphery of a weak mid-level ridge and toward a mid- to upper-level low farther north. Over the next couple of days, Kenneth should turn toward the north-northwest at about the same rate of speed. Once Kenneth becomes a post-tropical cyclone, it should turn back toward the northwest and slow its forward speed within the weak, low-level tradewinds. The official track forecast is based upon the usually reliable global and hurricane dynamical models, minus the substantially slower and to the left UKMET solution (which has not been performing well thus far this season). The new track forecast is slightly northeast of the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 19.2N 132.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 20.4N 132.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 22.2N 134.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 24.0N 134.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 25.6N 135.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 28.5N 136.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 26/0000Z 30.5N 137.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/0000Z 31.5N 137.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Hurricane Kenneth Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2017-08-22 04:39:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 22 2017 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 220239 PWSEP3 HURRICANE KENNETH WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132017 0300 UTC TUE AUG 22 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KENNETH WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 132.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 130W 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 135W 34 4 5( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 25N 135W 34 X 5( 5) 35(40) 26(66) 1(67) X(67) X(67) 25N 135W 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) 25N 135W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 30N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 6(15) 1(16) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 30N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Summary for Hurricane Kenneth (EP3/EP132017)
2017-08-22 04:39:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KENNETH WEAKENS TO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC OCEAN... As of 8:00 PM PDT Mon Aug 21 the center of Kenneth was located near 19.2, -132.1 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 969 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
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