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Hurricane Kenneth Forecast Discussion Number 12
2017-08-21 10:46:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Aug 21 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 210846 TCDEP3 Hurricane Kenneth Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 200 AM PDT Mon Aug 21 2017 Kenneth has continued to rapidly intensify since the previous advisory. The satellite presentation of the hurricane is quite impressive, as a 15-nmi wide eye has become better defined while the cloud tops of the surrounding ring of convection has cooled. Dvorak intensity estimates range from T5.5 (102 kt) from SAB, T6.0 (115 kt) from TAFB, to T6.3 (122 kt) from UW/CIMSS. Using a blend of these estimates, the initial wind speed has been increased to 115 kt, making Kenneth a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The hurricane is expected to peak in intensity very soon as it will be moving over cooler waters and into a more stable air mass later today. After that time, cooler sea surface temperatures and less favorable thermodynamic conditions should cause steady weakening. In 3 to 4 days, increasing southwesterly shear from an upper-level trough along 140W and sub 23C SSTs should cause Kenneth's deep convection to dissipate, resulting in the system becoming a post-tropical cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is slightly higher than the previous one at 12 and 24 h due to the higher initial intensity. After that time, the forecast is fairly similar to the previous advisory, and is a blend of the various intensity aids. The initial motion estimate is west-northwest or 300 degrees at 9 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains the same as the previous advisory, as Kenneth is expected to turn northwestward today, then north-northwestward on Tuesday between a mid-level ridge to its east and a developing cut-off low to the west. Kenneth should slow down considerably later in the period when it becomes a vertically shallow system and is steered by the weaker low-level flow. There is very little spread in the track guidance, and the updated official forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope, and very close to the previous NHC forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 17.4N 130.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 18.2N 131.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 19.7N 132.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 21.3N 133.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 23.1N 134.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 24/0600Z 26.6N 135.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 25/0600Z 29.0N 136.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 26/0600Z 30.5N 137.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Kenneth Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2017-08-21 10:45:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 21 2017 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 210845 PWSEP3 HURRICANE KENNETH WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132017 0900 UTC MON AUG 21 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KENNETH WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 130W 34 3 16(19) 3(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 20N 135W 34 X 4( 4) 20(24) 3(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) 20N 135W 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) 43(65) X(65) X(65) 25N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) X(24) X(24) 25N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 30N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 2(15) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 30N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Hurricane Kenneth (EP3/EP132017)
2017-08-21 10:45:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KENNETH CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN... As of 2:00 AM PDT Mon Aug 21 the center of Kenneth was located near 17.4, -130.0 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 952 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.
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Hurricane Kenneth Public Advisory Number 12
2017-08-21 10:45:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Aug 21 2017 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 210845 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Kenneth Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 200 AM PDT Mon Aug 21 2017 ...KENNETH CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 130.0W ABOUT 1355 MI...2180 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kenneth was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 130.0 West. Kenneth is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the northwest, then north-northwest is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Kenneth is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. A little additional strengthening is possible this morning, before weakening begins tonight. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Kenneth Forecast Advisory Number 12
2017-08-21 10:44:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 21 2017 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 210844 TCMEP3 HURRICANE KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132017 0900 UTC MON AUG 21 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 130.0W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 130.0W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 129.6W FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 18.2N 131.2W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 19.7N 132.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 21.3N 133.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 23.1N 134.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 26.6N 135.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 29.0N 136.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 30.5N 137.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 130.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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