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Hurricane Kenneth Graphics
2017-08-20 16:37:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 20 Aug 2017 14:37:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 20 Aug 2017 15:25:48 GMT
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hurricane kenneth
Hurricane Kenneth Forecast Discussion Number 9
2017-08-20 16:32:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 20 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 201432 TCDEP3 Hurricane Kenneth Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 20 2017 Kenneth is gradually strengthening. Satellite images show that the cloud pattern consists of a central dense overcast and curved bands beyond that feature, especially to the south of the center. The Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB were both 4.0/65 kt, and recent ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin are about the same. Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased a little to 65 kt, making Kenneth a category 1 hurricane. The initial motion of the hurricane is the same as before, 280/13 kt. A turn to the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected to occur on Monday as a mid-level ridge to the northeast of the system weakens. After that time, Kenneth is expected to move even slower to the north-northwest when it moves into a break in the ridge caused by a cut-off low near the southwestern United States. Overall the models are in fair agreement with this scenario, but they differ in where and when Kenneth begins to recurve. The consensus aids have been quite consistent over the past few cycles, and this forecast is largely just an update of the previous one. The environmental conditions are conducive for Kenneth to strengthen some more during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, however, cooler waters along the expected track and drier air should end the strengthening trend and cause weakening. In addition, the global models show a significant increase in southerly shear beginning in about 72 hours, which should aid in the weakening trend. The intensity models are in very good agreement, and little change was made to the previous forecast. Kenneth will likely become a post-tropical cyclone in 4 to 5 days when it will be over SSTs of about 23 deg C. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 16.3N 127.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 16.8N 129.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 17.8N 131.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 19.0N 132.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 20.4N 133.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 23/1200Z 23.7N 134.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 24/1200Z 26.7N 136.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 25/1200Z 28.0N 137.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Hurricane Kenneth (EP3/EP132017)
2017-08-20 16:31:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KENNETH IS NOW A HURRICANE... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sun Aug 20 the center of Kenneth was located near 16.3, -127.4 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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hurricane kenneth
Hurricane Kenneth Public Advisory Number 9
2017-08-20 16:31:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 20 2017 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 201431 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Kenneth Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 20 2017 ...KENNETH IS NOW A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 127.4W ABOUT 1225 MI...1970 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kenneth was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 127.4 West. Kenneth is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A slower west-northwestward motion is expected today, and a turn toward the northwest is forecast to occur on Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Kenneth Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2017-08-20 16:31:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 20 2017 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 201431 PWSEP3 HURRICANE KENNETH WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132017 1500 UTC SUN AUG 20 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KENNETH WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 2 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 130W 34 2 7( 9) 11(20) 4(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 15N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 135W 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 31(41) 8(49) X(49) X(49) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 27(29) 19(48) X(48) 25N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) X(14) 25N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 30N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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