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Hurricane Kenneth Graphics
2017-08-21 05:01:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 21 Aug 2017 03:01:30 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 21 Aug 2017 03:25:38 GMT
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Hurricane Kenneth Forecast Discussion Number 11
2017-08-21 04:52:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Aug 20 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 210252 TCDEP3 Hurricane Kenneth Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 800 PM PDT Sun Aug 20 2017 Kenneth has rapidly intensified into a major hurricane this evening, as the eye has dramatically warmed and the surrounding cloud tops of the eyewall have cooled. At 00Z, a blend of TAFB, SAB, and ADT Dvorak classifications averaged maximum winds of 95 kt. However, the continued convective development in the last three hours suggests that the advisory intensity be boosted to 100 kt, and even that may be conservative. While the hurricane has shown an impressive evolution in the last day, this should not continue much longer. Kenneth will reach the 26C SST isotherm with drier, less unstable air late Monday, and it is anticipated that Kenneth will peak by then. In about three days, the vertical shear will go up appreciably due to Kenneth approaching an upper-level trough. The combination of the hostile thermodynamics and shear should cause a steady weakening through the forecast period. Kenneth's deep convection is likely to dissipate in three to four days, signaling the system's transformation to a post-tropical cyclone. The official intensity forecast is substantially higher than previously in the short-term due to the unanticipated rapid intensification, but similar for 36 hours and beyond. This prediction is closest to a blend of the HMON dynamical model and the LGEM/SHIPS statistical models. The hurricane is moving toward the west-northwest at 9 kt, steered by a weak mid-level ridge to its northeast. Kenneth should gradually turn toward the north-northwest during the next couple of days at about the same rate of forward speed, as it rounds the mid-level ridge and is impacted by a cut-off mid- to upper-level low farther north. Once Kenneth becomes a post-tropical cyclone in about 4 days, its forward speed should slow as it reaches a weaker steering flow. The official track forecast is nearly unchanged through day 2 and is farther north beyond that time, based upon the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 16.8N 129.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 17.4N 130.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 18.7N 131.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 20.3N 132.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 22.1N 133.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 24/0000Z 25.5N 135.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 25/0000Z 28.5N 136.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 26/0000Z 30.0N 136.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Hurricane Kenneth Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2017-08-21 04:51:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 21 2017 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 210251 PWSEP3 HURRICANE KENNETH WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132017 0300 UTC MON AUG 21 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KENNETH WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 1 16(17) 9(26) 2(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) 20N 130W 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) 20N 135W 34 X 2( 2) 14(16) 11(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 47(55) 4(59) X(59) 25N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 1(19) X(19) 25N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 30N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 3(15) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 30N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Summary for Hurricane Kenneth (EP3/EP132017)
2017-08-21 04:51:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KENNETH RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 3 MAJOR HURRICANE... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sun Aug 20 the center of Kenneth was located near 16.8, -129.1 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 964 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
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hurricane kenneth
Hurricane Kenneth Public Advisory Number 11
2017-08-21 04:51:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Aug 20 2017 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 210251 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Kenneth Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 800 PM PDT Sun Aug 20 2017 ...KENNETH RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 3 MAJOR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 129.1W ABOUT 1315 MI...2115 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Kenneth was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 129.1 West. Kenneth is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A gradual turn toward the north-northwest at about the same rate of forward speed is expected during the next two days. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Kenneth is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The hurricane may reach a slightly higher intensity Monday before commencing a weakening trend Monday night or Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Landsea
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