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Tropical Storm Katia Forecast Advisory Number 4
2017-09-06 16:31:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 06 2017 000 WTNT23 KNHC 061431 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM KATIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132017 1500 UTC WED SEP 06 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF VERACRUZ LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 95.9W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 120 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 95.9W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 96.1W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 21.4N 95.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 21.0N 95.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 21.0N 95.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 20.7N 95.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 19.5N 97.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 95.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm Katia Graphics
2017-09-06 10:49:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 06 Sep 2017 08:49:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 06 Sep 2017 08:49:35 GMT
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Tropical Storm Katia Forecast Discussion Number 3
2017-09-06 10:44:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Sep 06 2017 000 WTNT43 KNHC 060844 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Katia Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132017 400 AM CDT Wed Sep 06 2017 Conventional satellite imagery shows improved organization of the cloud pattern during the past several hours, with recent cold cloud top of -80C associated with deep convective bursts near the surface center. An earlier SSMI/S microwave pass also revealed a developing curved band feature in the eastern portion of the cyclone. Additionally, a 0306 UTC ASCAT-B overpass indicated winds of 35 kt in the aforementioned rain band. A Dvorak satellite intensity estimate of 35 kt from TAFB and the scatterometer wind data support upgrading the depression to Tropical Storm Katia at this time. The SHIPS model and the CIMSS shear analysis indicate westerly shear impinging the western side of Katia, but the flow aloft appears to be more diffluent now, indicative of the recent deep convective outbreak. Guidance continues to suggest that the shear will relax in about 36 hours which should allow Katia to strengthen, possibly to a hurricane as indicated in the HWRF forecast. There are no changes to the intensity forecast from the previous advisory, and it's based on the IVCN multi-model. The initial motion is estimated to be east-southeastward, or 110/2 kt. Katia has been drifting generally in this direction during the past several hours within weak steering currents associated with a mid-tropospheric trough digging southwestward from the Mississippi Valley. Later today, Katia should begin a gradual turn southeastward and southwestward around the 36 hour period as a mid-level ridge builds over the western gulf from Texas. The official forecast basically splits the guidance envelope and is hedged toward the HFIP Corrected Consensus Model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 22.1N 96.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 21.9N 96.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 21.6N 95.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 21.3N 95.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 21.1N 95.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 20.4N 96.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 10/0600Z 19.2N 98.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Summary for Tropical Storm Katia (AT3/AL132017)
2017-09-06 10:44:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM KATIA... As of 4:00 AM CDT Wed Sep 6 the center of Katia was located near 22.1, -96.3 with movement ESE at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Katia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2017-09-06 10:44:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 06 2017 000 FONT13 KNHC 060844 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM KATIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132017 0900 UTC WED SEP 06 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) LA PESCA MX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 7(12) 1(13) X(13) TAMPICO MX 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 6(12) 15(27) 4(31) X(31) TAMPICO MX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) TAMPICO MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) TUXPAN MX 34 X 4( 4) 6(10) 15(25) 20(45) 7(52) X(52) TUXPAN MX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 3(14) X(14) TUXPAN MX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) VERACRUZ MX 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 13(20) 18(38) 4(42) X(42) VERACRUZ MX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) X(10) VERACRUZ MX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) FRONTERA MX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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