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Hurricane Katia Public Advisory Number 8
2017-09-07 16:32:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 07 2017 000 WTNT33 KNHC 071432 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Katia Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132017 1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 07 2017 ...KATIA EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.6N 94.6W ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cabo Rojo to Laguna Verde A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Cabo Rojo to Rio Panuco * South of Laguna Verde to Puerto Veracruz. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical- storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Katia was located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 94.6 West. Katia is stationary and little overall motion is anticipated through late today. However, the hurricane is forecast to turn southwestward and approach the coast within the warning area late Friday or early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours and Katia could be near major hurricane strength at landfall. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane Hunter observations is 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 5 to 7 feet above normal tide levels near and to the north of where Katia makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Katia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches over northern Veracruz and eastern Hidalgo, Puebla, and San Luis Potosi. Katia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 5 inches over southern Tamaulipas, central San Luis Potosi, western Hidalgo, eastern Queretaro, and southern Veracruz through Saturday evening. Isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches are possible in northern Veracruz and eastern Hidalgo, Puebla, and San Luis Potosi. This rainfall may cause life- threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the hurricane warning area by Friday night or early Saturday, with tropical storm conditions expected within the tropical storm warning areas by late Friday. SURF: Swells generated by Katia are expected to affect portions of the coast of southeastern Mexico today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Katia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2017-09-07 16:32:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 07 2017 000 FONT13 KNHC 071432 PWSAT3 HURRICANE KATIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132017 1500 UTC THU SEP 07 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 250N 960W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LA PESCA MX 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) TAMPICO MX 34 2 3( 5) 19(24) 5(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) TAMPICO MX 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TUXPAN MX 34 2 13(15) 59(74) 10(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) TUXPAN MX 50 X 2( 2) 28(30) 13(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) TUXPAN MX 64 X 1( 1) 10(11) 8(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) VERACRUZ MX 34 2 6( 8) 22(30) 5(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) VERACRUZ MX 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) VERACRUZ MX 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FRONTERA MX 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane Katia Forecast Advisory Number 8
2017-09-07 16:32:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 07 2017 000 WTNT23 KNHC 071431 TCMAT3 HURRICANE KATIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132017 1500 UTC THU SEP 07 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO ROJO TO LAGUNA VERDE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO RIO PANUCO * SOUTH OF LAGUNA VERDE TO PUERTO VERACRUZ. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL- STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 94.6W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 10SW 5NW. 50 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 10NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 94.6W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 94.6W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 21.4N 95.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 15NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.2N 95.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 70SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 20.7N 96.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 70SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 19.9N 97.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 94.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane Katia Graphics
2017-09-07 13:48:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 07 Sep 2017 11:48:03 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 07 Sep 2017 09:35:55 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane Katia (AT3/AL132017)
2017-09-07 13:46:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KATIA MOVING LITTLE... As of 7:00 AM CDT Thu Sep 7 the center of Katia was located near 21.6, -94.6 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 983 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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