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Tropical Storm Katia Graphics
2017-09-06 16:40:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 06 Sep 2017 14:40:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 06 Sep 2017 15:41:15 GMT
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Tropical Storm Katia Forecast Discussion Number 4
2017-09-06 16:33:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 06 2017 000 WTNT43 KNHC 061433 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Katia Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132017 1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 06 2017 Satellite and microwave data indicate that the cloud pattern associated with Katia is gradually becoming better organized with abundant convection near the center and improving outflow. An average of subjective numbers from TAFB and SAB as well as objective Dvorak T-numbers from CIMMS yield an initial intensity of 40 kt, or perhaps a little bit higher. An Air Force plane will check Katia later today, and we will have a better estimate of the structure of the cyclone. Currently, the upper-level wind pattern is not very conducive for strengthening, but most of the global models as well as the SHIPS guidance indicate that the environment will become favorable with weaker shear. On this basis, the NHC forecast calls for Katia to become a hurricane before it approaches the coast of the state of Veracruz. Katia is embedded within weak steering currents, and the cyclone will most likely meander in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico for the next day or two. After that time global models develop a ridge over the northern Gulf of Mexico and this flow pattern will steer Katia southwestward toward the state of Veracruz. The NHC forecast is basically on top of the multi-model consensus and is not very different from the previous NHC track. Given the upward intensity trend and the forecast track toward the coast, a hurricane watch could be required for a portion of the coast of the state of Veracruz later today. This system is forecast to bring very heavy rains primarily to the state of Veracruz during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 21.7N 95.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 21.4N 95.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 21.0N 95.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 21.0N 95.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 20.7N 95.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 19.5N 97.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm Katia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2017-09-06 16:32:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 06 2017 000 FONT13 KNHC 061432 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM KATIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132017 1500 UTC WED SEP 06 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LA PESCA MX 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) TAMPICO MX 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 6(11) 10(21) X(21) X(21) TAMPICO MX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TUXPAN MX 34 X 3( 3) 9(12) 18(30) 18(48) X(48) X(48) TUXPAN MX 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 7(12) X(12) X(12) TUXPAN MX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VERACRUZ MX 34 X 4( 4) 8(12) 21(33) 21(54) X(54) X(54) VERACRUZ MX 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 11(19) X(19) X(19) VERACRUZ MX 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FRONTERA MX 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MERIDA MX 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Summary for Tropical Storm Katia (AT3/AL132017)
2017-09-06 16:32:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KATIA MOVING LITTLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE... As of 10:00 AM CDT Wed Sep 6 the center of Katia was located near 21.7, -95.9 with movement ESE at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Katia Public Advisory Number 4
2017-09-06 16:32:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 06 2017 000 WTNT33 KNHC 061432 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Katia Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132017 1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 06 2017 ...KATIA MOVING LITTLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.7N 95.9W ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM N OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 120 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. A Hurricane Watch could be required for portions of the Mexican state of Veracruz later today. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Katia was located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 95.9 West. Katia is moving slowly toward the east-southeast near 5 mph (7 km/h), and little motion is expected during the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast and Katia could become a hurricane before it approaches the coast of Veracruz in a couple of days. An Air Force reconnaissance plane will check Katia later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Katia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches over northern Veracruz, and 2 to 5 inches over far southern Tamaulipas, northeast Puebla, and southern Veracruz through Saturday morning. Isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible in northern Veracruz. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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