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Hurricane Katia Public Advisory Number 7A
2017-09-07 13:46:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Thu Sep 07 2017 000 WTNT33 KNHC 071146 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Katia Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132017 700 AM CDT Thu Sep 07 2017 ...KATIA MOVING LITTLE... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.6N 94.6W ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cabo Rojo to Laguna Verde A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Cabo Rojo to Rio Panuco * South of Laguna Verde to Puerto Veracruz. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Katia was located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 94.6 West. Katia is stationary and little overall motion is anticipated through late today, but the hurricane is forecast to turn southwestward and approach the coast within the watch area late Friday or early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Katia could be near major hurricane strength at landfall. Katia is a small tropical cyclone. hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane Hunter observations is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 5 to 7 feet above normal tide levels near and to the north of where Katia makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Katia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches over northern Veracruz, and 2 to 5 inches over far southern Tamaulipas, northeast Puebla, and southern Veracruz through Saturday morning. Isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible in northern Veracruz. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the hurricane warning area by late Friday, with tropical storm conditions expected within the tropical warning areas by midday Friday. SURF: Swells generated by Katia are expected to affect portions of the coast of southeastern Mexico today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Katia Graphics
2017-09-07 10:42:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 07 Sep 2017 08:42:59 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 07 Sep 2017 09:35:55 GMT
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Hurricane Katia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2017-09-07 10:37:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 07 2017 000 FONT13 KNHC 070837 PWSAT3 HURRICANE KATIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132017 0900 UTC THU SEP 07 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 250N 960W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LA PESCA MX 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) TAMPICO MX 34 1 3( 4) 10(14) 16(30) 5(35) X(35) X(35) TAMPICO MX 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) TAMPICO MX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) TUXPAN MX 34 1 5( 6) 41(47) 27(74) 5(79) X(79) X(79) TUXPAN MX 50 X 2( 2) 9(11) 27(38) 6(44) X(44) X(44) TUXPAN MX 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) VERACRUZ MX 34 1 5( 6) 26(32) 19(51) 2(53) X(53) X(53) VERACRUZ MX 50 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 10(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) VERACRUZ MX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FRONTERA MX 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane Katia Forecast Discussion Number 7
2017-09-07 10:37:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Sep 07 2017 000 WTNT43 KNHC 070837 TCDAT3 Hurricane Katia Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132017 400 AM CDT Thu Sep 07 2017 Katia has not changed appreciably during the past several hours with a small central dense overcast and a curved banding feature in the northeastern quadrant. Satellite estimates are about the same as earlier, so the initial wind speed will stay at 70 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to be in the hurricane in a few hours to get a better estimate of the current intensity. Katia is forecast to be over very warm waters with decreasing shear for the next 24-36 hours. Thus strengthening is expected as long as the center remains offshore. It is still puzzling why most of the guidance don't intensify this much, but since the global models continue to show significant deepening, the official forecast will stay on the high side of the guidance. The hurricane is essentially stationary, waiting for a ridge to build over the northwestern Gulf to steer Katia southwestward at a faster pace. Most of the guidance are in agreement on this track, although the UKMET is a notable outlier showing more of a westward motion. The only significant change from the previous advisory is to speed up the track of Katia as it approaches the coast. Given the latest track forecast, the government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the previous Hurricane Watch area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 21.5N 94.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 21.5N 94.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 21.2N 95.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 20.8N 95.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 20.2N 97.1W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 72H 10/0600Z 19.5N 99.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Summary for Hurricane Katia (AT3/AL132017)
2017-09-07 10:36:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR KATIA IN THE STATE OF VERACRUZ... As of 4:00 AM CDT Thu Sep 7 the center of Katia was located near 21.5, -94.5 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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