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Summary for Hurricane Lorena (EP5/EP152019)
2019-09-19 10:42:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENA CONTINUES TO HUG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING NORTHWARD... As of 4:00 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 the center of Lorena was located near 19.6, -105.0 with movement NNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane Lorena Public Advisory Number 8
2019-09-19 10:42:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 190842 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorena Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 400 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 ...CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENA CONTINUES TO HUG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING NORTHWARD... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 105.0W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 390 MI...625 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Warning from Manzanillo southward. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Interests in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Lorena. Watches may be required for a portion of the southern Baja California peninsula later this morning. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 105.0 West. Lorena is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) but a gradual turn to the northwest and west-northwest is expected today and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena will continue moving near or over the southwestern coast of Mexico within the hurricane warning area today and move back over water later today or Friday. Lorena is then expected to move away from the west-central coast of Mexico and approach southern Baja California Sur Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is expected today while the circulation is interacting with the high terrain. Once Lorena moves over water again in 12 to 24 hours, re-strengthening is anticipated. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring within portions of the warning area and will spread northwestward along the coast on Thursday. Hurricane conditions are expected to occur today within the hurricane warning area. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Hurricane Lorena Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2019-09-19 10:42:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 190842 PWSEP5 HURRICANE LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 0900 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 11(17) 2(19) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 21(22) 48(70) 9(79) 1(80) X(80) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 28(30) 10(40) 1(41) X(41) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 5(17) X(17) X(17) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 35(42) 9(51) 1(52) X(52) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 5(19) X(19) X(19) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 21(31) 4(35) X(35) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 7(16) 1(17) LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) ISLAS MARIAS 34 6 69(75) 8(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X 37(37) 8(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X 7( 7) 4(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN BLAS 34 3 5( 8) 2(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) P VALLARTA 34 46 6(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) P VALLARTA 50 19 2(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 36 X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) MANZANILLO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 18(31) 5(36) 1(37) X(37) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 9(16) 2(18) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Hurricane Lorena Forecast Advisory Number 8
2019-09-19 10:42:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 190841 TCMEP5 HURRICANE LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 0900 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM MANZANILLO SOUTHWARD. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO CORRIENTES TO PUNTA MITA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENA. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER THIS MORNING. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 105.0W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 0SE 10SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 10NE 20SE 20SW 10NW. 34 KT....... 20NE 30SE 70SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 120SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 105.0W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 104.8W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 20.5N 105.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 21.2N 107.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 21.7N 108.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 22.2N 110.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 24.0N 111.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 26.0N 113.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 28.0N 114.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 105.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 19/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Summary for Hurricane Lorena (EP5/EP152019)
2019-09-19 07:41:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...LORENA CONTINUES TO HUG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING NORTHWARD... As of 1:00 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 the center of Lorena was located near 19.3, -104.9 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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