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Tropical Storm Lorena Graphics
2019-09-18 07:40:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 05:40:59 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 03:58:34 GMT
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Tropical Storm Lorena Graphics
2019-09-18 04:59:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 02:59:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 02:59:44 GMT
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Tropical Storm Lorena Forecast Discussion Number 3
2019-09-18 04:58:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 180258 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 There has been little change in the cloud structure of Lorena since the last advisory, with the storm having a central convective feature and a ragged band in the western semicircle. A recently- received WindSat overpass indicates the low-level center is located near the northwestern edge of the central convection. The initial intensity remains 45 kt in good agreement with a subjective satellite estimate from TAFB. The initial motion is 305/13. A mid- to upper-level ridge over Mexico should steer Lorena generally northwestward with some decrease in forward speed during the forecast period, with the center likely to pass near the southwestern coast of Mexico late Wednesday through Thursday. The guidance has shifted a little to the left since the last advisory, and the new forecast track keeps the center of Lorena a little farther offshore than than the previous forecast. However, any motion to the right of the track would bring the center onshore in southwestern Mexico and cause rapid dissipation. If the center stays offshore, Lorena is forecast to be near the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula by the end of the forecast period. Conditions appear favorable for slow strengthening as Lorena approaches the southwestern coast of Mexico. Based on the forecast track now staying offshore, the new intensity forecast calls for a stronger storm by 48-72 h, with Lorena now forecast to be just under hurricane strength. This peak would be followed by a weakening trend as Lorena gradually moves over cooler water. An alternative intensity forecast is for Lorena to dissipate if the center moves onshore in southwestern Mexico. Key Messages: 1. Lorena is forecast to cause heavy rain over portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during the next few days. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along a portion of the southwestern coast of Mexico by late Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 15.1N 102.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 16.3N 103.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 17.7N 104.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 18.6N 104.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 19.3N 105.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 21/0000Z 20.6N 107.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 22/0000Z 22.0N 110.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 23/0000Z 24.5N 112.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Storm Lorena (EP5/EP152019)
2019-09-18 04:57:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...LORENA CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH WHILE CONTINUING NORTHWESTWARD... As of 10:00 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 the center of Lorena was located near 15.1, -102.1 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Lorena Public Advisory Number 3
2019-09-18 04:57:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 180257 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorena Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 ...LORENA CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH WHILE CONTINUING NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 102.1W ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 102.1 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A slower northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. Lorena is forecast to move near or over the southwestern coast of Mexico late Wednesday or early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days as Lorena approaches the coast of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the southern portion of the watch area by late Wednesday or early Thursday, and then are expected to spread northward along the coast through late Thursday. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life- threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the southwest coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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