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Tropical Storm Lorena Forecast Discussion Number 5
2019-09-18 16:52:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 181452 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 Lorena's cloud pattern has improved this morning, with the development of a central dense overcast feature, and several bands wrapping around the circulation. The initial intensity has been increased to 55 kt, which is in agreement subjective satellite estimates from SAB, and objective estimates from UW/CIMSS. Lorena is located within favorable oceanic and atmospheric conditions, and additional strengthening is forecast during the next 12 to 24 hours. After that time, Lorena's intensity will depend on how much interaction occurs with the mountainous terrain of southwestern Mexico. The latest NHC forecast takes the center along the immediate coast and shows some slight weakening as this occurs. After that time, re-strengthening is possible as Lorena is forecast to traverse warm waters to the southeast of the Baja California peninsula. It should be noted that the intensity forecast is more uncertain than normal due to the potential for land interaction. Lorena has moved a little right of the previous track. Recent microwave fixes indicated a northwestward motion of 325/11 kt. Lorena is forecast to move northwestward around the southwestern portion of mid-level ridge. The overall track envelope has nudged eastward, closer to the coast of southwestern Mexico. In fact, the ECMWF brings the center of Lorena onshore tonight, and that is a distinct possibility. The early portion of the NHC track has been nudged eastward, and lies between the aforementioned ECMWF model track and the various consensus aids. After 24 hours, most of the guidance turns Lorena west-northwestward as a narrow ridge builds to the north of the cyclone. During this portion of the track forecast, the guidance has shifted to the right, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly. Key Messages: 1. Lorena is forecast to become a hurricane and move dangerously close to the coast of southwestern Mexico later today and tonight. A hurricane warning has been issued for this area and preparations to protect life in property should be rushed to completion. 2. Lorena is forecast to cause heavy rain over portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during the next few days. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 17.4N 103.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 18.6N 104.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 19.8N 105.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 20.5N 106.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 21.2N 107.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 22.4N 110.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 24.0N 112.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 23/1200Z 26.7N 114.2W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Lorena Graphics
2019-09-18 16:38:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 14:38:42 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 15:58:29 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Lorena (EP5/EP152019)
2019-09-18 16:37:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 10:00 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 the center of Lorena was located near 17.4, -103.5 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Lorena Public Advisory Number 5
2019-09-18 16:37:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 181437 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorena Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 103.5W ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the southwestern coast of Mexico from Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes. The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the southwestern coast of Mexico from Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Zihuatanejo to Punta San Telmo * Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests in Baja California del Sur should monitor the progress of Lorena. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 103.5 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A slower northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Lorena is expected to move near or over the southwestern coast of Mexico within the hurricane warning area tonight and Thursday. The center of Lorena is then expected to move west-northwestward away from the western coast of Mexico late Thursday and Friday and approach southern Baja California Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Lorena is expected to become a hurricane as it nears the coast of southwestern Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area as early as this evening, and then will spread northwestward tonight and Thursday. Tropical Storm conditions will first reach the coast within the hurricane warning area later today. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the southern portion of the tropical storm warning area later today, and then are expected to spread northward along the coast through Thursday night. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life- threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the southwest coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Lorena Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2019-09-18 16:37:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 181437 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 39(47) 7(54) 1(55) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 3(17) 1(18) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 22(25) 5(30) X(30) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 7(18) 1(19) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 9(10) 32(42) 22(64) 6(70) X(70) X(70) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 15(24) 2(26) 1(27) X(27) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) SAN BLAS 34 X 3( 3) 9(12) 4(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) P VALLARTA 34 X 24(24) 17(41) 3(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) P VALLARTA 50 X 5( 5) 5(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) P VALLARTA 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 21 59(80) 2(82) 1(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 3 30(33) 2(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MANZANILLO 34 68 22(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) MANZANILLO 50 18 26(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) MANZANILLO 64 4 7(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) L CARDENAS 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ZIHUATANEJO 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 17(28) 3(31) X(31) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 3(13) X(13) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 8(17) 25N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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