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Summary for Hurricane Lorena (EP5/EP152019)
2019-09-19 04:43:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...LORENA BECOMES A HURRICANE JUST OFFSHORE THE COAST OF COLIMA... ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ONSHORE... As of 10:00 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 the center of Lorena was located near 18.7, -104.7 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane Lorena Public Advisory Number 7
2019-09-19 04:43:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 190243 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorena Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 ...LORENA BECOMES A HURRICANE JUST OFFSHORE THE COAST OF COLIMA... ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ONSHORE... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.7N 104.7W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning from Zihuatanejo to Punta San Telmo. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Interests in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Lorena. Watches may be required for a portion of the southern Baja California peninsula on Thursday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 104.7 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and the forward speed is expected to decrease a bit on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to move near or over the southwestern coast of Mexico within the hurricane warning area tonight and Thursday. Lorena is then expected to move west-northwestward away from the west-central coast of Mexico late Thursday and Friday and approach southern Baja California Sur Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring within southern portion of the warning area and will spread northwestward along the coast on Thursday. Hurricane conditions are expected to occur later tonight and on Thursday within the hurricane warning area. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Lorena Forecast Advisory Number 7
2019-09-19 04:42:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 190242 TCMEP5 HURRICANE LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM ZIHUATANEJO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO CORRIENTES TO PUNTA MITA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENA. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON THURSDAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 104.7W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 10NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 80SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 120SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 104.7W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 104.4W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 19.7N 105.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 15SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.5N 106.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.0N 107.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.4N 109.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.6N 111.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 24.6N 113.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 26.4N 115.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 104.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 19/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Summary for Tropical Storm Lorena (EP5/EP152019)
2019-09-19 02:13:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...LORENA'S CENTER OBLIQUELY APPROACHING THE COASTS OF COLIMA AND SOUTHERN JALISCO... ...RAINBANDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ONSHORE... As of 7:00 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 the center of Lorena was located near 18.3, -104.3 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Lorena Public Advisory Number 6A
2019-09-19 02:13:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 182351 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 700 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 ...LORENA'S CENTER OBLIQUELY APPROACHING THE COASTS OF COLIMA AND SOUTHERN JALISCO... ...RAINBANDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ONSHORE... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 104.3W ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Zihuatanejo to Punta San Telmo * Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Lorena. Watches may be required for a portion of the southern Baja California peninsula this evening or overnight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 104.3 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A slower northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Lorena is expected to move near or over the southwestern coast of Mexico within the hurricane warning area tonight and Thursday. The center of Lorena is then expected to move west-northwestward away from the western coast of Mexico late Thursday and Friday and approach southern Baja California Sur Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast tonight, and Lorena is forecast to become a hurricane as it nears the southwestern coast of Mexico. Additional strengthening is possible when Lorena moves west of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely spreading onshore within the warning area. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin later tonight within the hurricane warning area and will spread northwestward along the coast on Thursday. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life- threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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