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Tropical Storm Lorena Graphics
2019-09-19 22:39:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 20:39:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 21:58:23 GMT
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Tropical Storm Lorena Forecast Discussion Number 10
2019-09-19 22:37:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 192037 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 300 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 The center and structure of Lorena was extremely difficult to determine this morning after the core of the tropical cyclone interacted with the mountainous terrain of southwestern Mexico. The aircraft that was scheduled to investigate Lorena had mechanical issues and was unable to complete its mission. Thankfully, a fortuitous GMI microwave overpass around 1800 UTC and more recent ASCAT data has provided some clarity on the location and structure of the cyclone. According to that data, the center is located just southwest of the Islas Marias, and the ASCAT revealed peak winds of 45-50 kt. Given the typical undersampling of the ASCAT for in small tropical cyclones, the initial intensity is set at 60 kt, which is between the peak scatterometer winds and the higher satellite estimates. Since the microwave data suggests that the inner core appears to be somewhat intact, some strengthening is expected while the cyclone moves over warm water and remains in a low shear environment during the next 24 hours or so. As a result, Lorena is forecast to be a hurricane when it pass near or over the southern Baja peninsula. After that time, interaction with land is likely to cause some decrease in wind speed. Lorena has been moving faster than expected, and the initial motion estimate is 315/11 kt. The cyclone should turn west-northwestward tonight as it moves between a mid-level ridge to its northeast and Tropical Storm Mario to the southwest. If Lorena remains separated from Mario (as shown by the latest ECMWF), a turn back toward the northwest is expected as the storm moves around the southwestern portion of the ridge. The new NHC track forecast lies between the HFIP corrected consensus model and the latest ECMWF. Although there is still quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the exact track and intensity of Lorena, the government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for a portion of the southern Baja California peninsula. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall will continue over portions of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during the next day or so. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to continue along a portion of the coast of southwestern Mexico through this evening. 3. Lorena is forecast to re-strengthen into a hurricane and bring hurricane-force winds and heavy rainfall to a portion of the southern Baja California peninsula beginning on Friday. A Hurricane Warning has been issued, and preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 21.6N 107.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 22.4N 108.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 22.8N 109.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 23.5N 111.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 24.4N 112.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 27.0N 114.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 23/1800Z 29.0N 115.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Lorena Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2019-09-19 22:36:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 192036 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 2(17) X(17) PUNTA EUGENIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P ABREOJOS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 23(29) 2(31) X(31) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 4 78(82) 10(92) 1(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X 40(40) 15(55) 1(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X 16(16) 7(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) SAN JOSE CABO 34 2 62(64) 11(75) 1(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) SAN JOSE CABO 50 1 30(31) 9(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LA PAZ 34 X 8( 8) 23(31) 2(33) 2(35) X(35) X(35) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LORETO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) GUAYMAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) HUATABAMPO 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CULIACAN 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLAS MARIAS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 16(24) 1(25) X(25) 25N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Summary for Tropical Storm Lorena (EP5/EP152019)
2019-09-19 22:36:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OCCURING IN THE ISLAS MARIAS... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... As of 3:00 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 the center of Lorena was located near 21.6, -107.0 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Lorena Public Advisory Number 10
2019-09-19 22:36:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 192036 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorena Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 300 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OCCURING IN THE ISLAS MARIAS... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.6N 107.0W ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the Baja California peninsula from La Paz to Santa Fe. The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch along the east coast of the Baja California peninsula from north of La Paz to San Evaristo, and along the west coast of the Baja California peninsula from north of Santa Fe to Puerto Cortes. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula from La Paz to Santa Fe A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of La Paz to San Evaristo * West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Santa Fe to Puerto Cortes A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Manzanillo to Punta Mita A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Lorena. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 107.0 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn to the west-northwest is expected tonight, and a west-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed should continue through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena will move over the Pacific waters to the southeast of the Baja California peninsula tonight, pass near or over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula on Friday, and move along the west coast of the peninsula Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Lorena is forecast to re-gain hurricane strength as it approaches the Baja California peninsula. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. A Mexican navy automated station on Isla Maria Madre island recently reported sustained winds of 45 mph (73 km/h) and a wind gust of 65 mph (105 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue within portions of the tropical storm warning area in southwestern Mexico through this evening. Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in the southern Baja California peninsula on Friday, with tropical storm conditions beginning late tonight. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by Saturday. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through the weekend: Coastal sections of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco: 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches. This rainfall may produce life threatening flash floods and mudslides. Far southern Baja California Sur: 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts around 6 inches. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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