je.st

Home › lorena

Tag: lorena

Tropical Storm Lorena Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6

2019-09-18 22:48:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 182048 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 2100 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 5(19) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 18(24) 45(69) 4(73) X(73) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 28(32) 3(35) 1(36) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 2(16) X(16) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 34(43) 4(47) X(47) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 2(18) X(18) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 18(21) 9(30) X(30) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) 1(14) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 32(33) 34(67) 7(74) 3(77) X(77) X(77) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X 3( 3) 19(22) 6(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) X(11) SAN BLAS 34 1 6( 7) 7(14) 2(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) P VALLARTA 34 4 30(34) 6(40) 2(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) P VALLARTA 50 X 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) P VALLARTA 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 78 5(83) 1(84) X(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 41 4(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 86 2(88) 1(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) MANZANILLO 50 15 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) MANZANILLO 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) L CARDENAS 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 1 2( 3) 8(11) 23(34) 20(54) 2(56) X(56) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) 1(17) X(17) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 12(20) 3(23) X(23) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 1(11) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) 5(27) 25N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 25N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Tags: number speed wind storm

Tropical Storm Lorena Forecast Advisory Number 6

2019-09-18 22:45:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 182045 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 2100 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ZIHUATANEJO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO * CABO CORRIENTES TO PUNTA MITA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA DEL SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENA. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 104.4W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 10NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 80SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 120SE 70SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 104.4W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 104.0W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 19.2N 105.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 20.1N 106.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.7N 107.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 21.2N 108.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.5N 110.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 24.5N 113.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 26.6N 115.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 104.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 19/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Tags: number storm advisory tropical

Summary for Tropical Storm Lorena (EP5/EP152019)

2019-09-18 19:45:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...LORENA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 1:00 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 the center of Lorena was located near 17.6, -104.0 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Tags: summary storm tropical tropical storm

Tropical Storm Lorena Public Advisory Number 5A

2019-09-18 19:45:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 181745 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 100 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 ...LORENA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 104.0W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Zihuatanejo to Punta San Telmo * Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests in Baja California del Sur should monitor the progress of Lorena. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 104.0 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A slower northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Lorena is expected to move near or over the southwestern coast of Mexico within the hurricane warning area tonight and Thursday. The center of Lorena is then expected to move west-northwestward away from the western coast of Mexico late Thursday and Friday and approach southern Baja California Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Lorena is expected to become a hurricane as it nears the coast of southwestern Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area as early as this evening, and then will spread northwestward tonight and Thursday. Tropical Storm conditions will first reach the coast within the hurricane warning area later today. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the southern portion of the tropical storm warning area later today, and then are expected to spread northward along the coast through Thursday night. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life- threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the southwest coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

Tags: number public storm advisory