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Tropical Storm Lorena Forecast Advisory Number 4
2019-09-18 10:57:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 180857 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 0900 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 103.0W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 60SE 80SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 60SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 103.0W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 102.6W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.4N 104.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.5N 104.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 19.4N 105.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.1N 106.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.5N 108.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 60SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 23.2N 111.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 25.6N 112.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 103.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 18/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Summary for Tropical Storm Lorena (EP5/EP152019)
2019-09-18 10:56:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...LORENA A LITTLE STRONGER... ...MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 4:00 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 the center of Lorena was located near 16.1, -103.0 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Lorena Public Advisory Number 4
2019-09-18 10:56:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 ZCZC MIATCPEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorena Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 400 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 ...LORENA A LITTLE STRONGER... ...MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 103.0W ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 103.0 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A slower northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. Lorena is forecast to move near or over the southwestern coast of Mexico Thursday or early Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Further slow strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days and Lorena is expected to become a hurricane on Friday as it approaches the coast of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the southern portion of the warning area by late Wednesday or early Thursday, and then are expected to spread northward along the coast through late Thursday. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoaca, Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the southwest coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts NNNN
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Summary for Tropical Storm Lorena (EP5/EP152019)
2019-09-18 07:41:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...LORENA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 1:00 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 the center of Lorena was located near 15.6, -102.6 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Lorena Public Advisory Number 3A
2019-09-18 07:41:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 180541 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 100 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 ...LORENA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.6N 102.6W ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 102.6 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A slower northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. Lorena is forecast to move near or over the southwestern coast of Mexico late Wednesday or early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days as Lorena approaches the coast of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the southern portion of the warning area by late Wednesday or early Thursday, and then are expected to spread northward along the coast through late Thursday. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life- threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the southwest coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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