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Tropical Depression Norbert Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15

2020-10-09 10:38:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 09 2020 040 FOPZ14 KNHC 090838 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 0900 UTC FRI OCT 09 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER REINHART/ZELINSKY

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Summary for Tropical Depression Norbert (EP4/EP192020)

2020-10-09 10:38:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...WEAKLY NORBERT STRUGGLING WITH WIND SHEAR... As of 3:00 AM MDT Fri Oct 9 the center of Norbert was located near 13.2, -106.0 with movement NW at 1 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

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Tropical Depression Norbert Public Advisory Number 15

2020-10-09 10:38:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Oct 09 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 090837 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Norbert Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 300 AM MDT Fri Oct 09 2020 ...WEAKLY NORBERT STRUGGLING WITH WIND SHEAR... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.2N 106.0W ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Norbert was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 106.0 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 1 mph (2 km/h), and this general motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days. Norbert is expected to become a remnant low by Saturday and dissipate by Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Zelinsky

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Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Advisory Number 15

2020-10-09 10:37:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 09 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 090837 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 0900 UTC FRI OCT 09 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 106.0W AT 09/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 1 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 106.0W AT 09/0900Z AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 105.9W FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 13.4N 106.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 13.9N 106.9W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 14.4N 107.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 14.7N 107.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 14.9N 107.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 106.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/ZELINSKY

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