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Tropical Depression Norbert Public Advisory Number 17
2020-10-09 22:34:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Oct 09 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 092034 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Norbert Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 300 PM MDT Fri Oct 09 2020 ...NORBERT EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.5N 106.3W ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Norbert was located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 106.3 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow northwestward motion is expected for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days. Norbert is expected to dissipate by Sunday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Advisory Number 17
2020-10-09 22:34:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 09 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 092034 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 2100 UTC FRI OCT 09 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 106.3W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 106.3W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 106.2W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 13.8N 106.6W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 14.4N 107.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 14.7N 107.1W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 14.9N 107.2W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 106.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Depression Norbert Graphics
2020-10-09 16:33:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 09 Oct 2020 14:33:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 09 Oct 2020 15:31:35 GMT
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Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 16
2020-10-09 16:33:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Oct 09 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 091433 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 900 AM MDT Fri Oct 09 2020 Although the deep convection associated with Norbert has increased this morning during the diurnal maximum, it is lacking in organization. However, this new convection has bought the depression some time as a tropical cyclone. The initial intensity is held at 25 kt based off the latest Dvorak satellite intensity estimate from TAFB. Since there is plenty of warm water along Norbert's forecast track, the cyclone will likely continue to sputter rounds of convection like this morning's for the next couple of days, which should at least maintain the system as a tropical depression during that time. In a few days, it is expected that the combination of a slow spin down of Norbert's vortex, and an increase in the environmental low-level flow should cause the system to open into a trough of low pressure. The latest NHC forecast no longer indicates a remnant low phase, but instead forecasts Norbert to remain a weak depression until dissipation in a few days. This solution is in agreement with the majority of the global models. Norbert is finally making its anticipated move toward the northwest, albeit at a meager 3 kt. A slow northwestward motion is expected until dissipation as the cyclone is steered by weak mid-level ridging to its northeast. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is near the various track consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 13.3N 106.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 13.6N 106.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 14.1N 107.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 14.6N 107.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 14.8N 107.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 12/0000Z 14.9N 108.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Summary for Tropical Depression Norbert (EP4/EP192020)
2020-10-09 16:32:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DISORGANIZED NORBERT MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD... As of 9:00 AM MDT Fri Oct 9 the center of Norbert was located near 13.3, -106.1 with movement NW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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