je.st
news
Tag: norbert
Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 14
2020-10-09 04:42:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Thu Oct 08 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 090242 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 900 PM MDT Thu Oct 08 2020 Norbert's satellite presentation has changed little in the past several hours. Intermittent bursts of deep convection continue to pulse near the center, and the depression's asymmetric appearance indicates it is still experiencing southeasterly shear. The initial intensity is held at 25 kt based on a T1.5 Dvorak classification from TAFB and earlier satellite-derived wind data. Environmental conditions are not expected to change much during the next several days. Norbert will remain over warm sea-surface temperatures, but weak to moderate east-southeasterly shear will likely persist over the cyclone. Little intensity change is expected over the next couple of days. The NHC intensity forecast keeps Norbert as a 25-kt tropical depression through the next 60 h, although minor intensity fluctuations are possible. Between 36-72 h, increasing deep-layer shear should expedite Norbert's degeneration into a remnant low, and this advisory calls for Norbert to become a remnant low at 72 h. Norbert has moved little in the past 6-12 h, as the large-scale steering currents remain weak. A weak mid-level ridge is forecast to build to the northeast of the cyclone Friday through Saturday, which should steer Norbert slowly west-northwestward or northwestward. A mid- to upper-level low is expected to move across northern Mexico on Sunday, which could cause Norbert to stall or meander once again if it remains a depression. Later in the forecast period, whatever remains of Norbert should move westward as it becomes embedded within the low-level easterly trades. The latest NHC track forecast is adjusted slightly towards the left of the previous forecast, in line with the latest model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 13.0N 106.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 13.1N 106.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 13.5N 106.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 14.2N 107.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 14.6N 107.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 11/1200Z 14.8N 107.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 12/0000Z 15.0N 107.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/0000Z 15.0N 108.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/0000Z 15.0N 109.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Berg
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Tropical Depression Norbert Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2020-10-09 04:40:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 09 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 090240 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 0300 UTC FRI OCT 09 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BERG
Tags: number
speed
wind
tropical
Summary for Tropical Depression Norbert (EP4/EP192020)
2020-10-09 04:39:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DISORGANIZED NORBERT REMAINS A WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 9:00 PM MDT Thu Oct 8 the center of Norbert was located near 13.0, -106.0 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
Tags: summary
tropical
depression
ep4ep192020
Tropical Depression Norbert Public Advisory Number 14
2020-10-09 04:39:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Thu Oct 08 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 090239 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Norbert Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 900 PM MDT Thu Oct 08 2020 ...DISORGANIZED NORBERT REMAINS A WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.0N 106.0W ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Norbert was located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 106.0 West. The depression is currently stationary. A slow west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected to begin on Friday and continue through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Berg
Tags: number
public
advisory
tropical
Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Advisory Number 14
2020-10-09 04:38:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 09 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 090238 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 0300 UTC FRI OCT 09 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 106.0W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 106.0W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 106.0W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 13.1N 106.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 13.5N 106.9W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 14.2N 107.4W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 14.6N 107.6W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 14.8N 107.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 15.0N 107.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 15.0N 108.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 15.0N 109.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 106.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BERG
Tags: number
advisory
tropical
depression
Sites : [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] next »