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Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-10-07 22:50:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Oct 07 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 072050 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 300 PM MDT Wed Oct 07 2020 Convection has decreased in association with Norbert since the last advisory, with the system now comprised of a mostly-exposed swirl of low-level clouds. Based on the weakened cloud pattern, the initial intensity is reduced to 30 kt and Norbert is downgraded to a depression. Daytime visible imagery shows that Norbert is south of the previous advisory location, and the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 180/2. Little motion is expected during the next 12 h or so as the cyclone is in an area of weak steering currents. A west-southwestward drift is forecast from 12-36 h. This will be followed by a slow motion toward the west-northwest or northwest for the remainder of the forecast period as a mid-level ridge builds to the north and northeast of Norbert. The forecast guidance has shifted to the right at 96 and 120 h, so the new forecast track is shifted in that direction as well. Otherwise, the new forecast, which lies near the various consensus models, has only slight changes since the previous advisory. While Norbert is seemingly in a favorable environment of light vertical wind shear over warm water, none of the intensity guidance calls for significant strengthening. Indeed, the GFS and ECMWF models call for the system to dissipate before 120 h, possibly due to dry air intrusions. Given the favorable shear and sea surface temperatures, the official intensity forecast calls for the system to survive for 5 days with little change in strength in overall agreement with the intensity guidance. It should be noted that if any strong convective bursts occur, these could cause the system to strengthen just the little bit it needs to regain tropical storm strength. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 13.4N 107.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 13.4N 107.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 13.3N 107.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 13.1N 107.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 13.1N 108.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 10/0600Z 13.8N 108.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 14.7N 109.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 16.5N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 12/1800Z 18.0N 112.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Norbert Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2020-10-07 22:50:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 07 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 072050 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 2100 UTC WED OCT 07 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 10(12) 4(16) 1(17) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Tropical Depression Norbert (EP4/EP192020)
2020-10-07 22:50:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NORBERT WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 3:00 PM MDT Wed Oct 7 the center of Norbert was located near 13.4, -107.1 with movement S at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Norbert Public Advisory Number 9
2020-10-07 22:50:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Oct 07 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 072050 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Norbert Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 300 PM MDT Wed Oct 07 2020 ...NORBERT WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.4N 107.1W ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Norbert was located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 107.1 West. The depression is moving toward the south near 2 mph (4 km/h). Little motion is expected tonight, with a southwestward drift expected on Thursday. A slow motion toward the west-northwest or northwest is expected Friday and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Advisory Number 9
2020-10-07 22:50:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 07 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 072050 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 2100 UTC WED OCT 07 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 107.1W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 180 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 107.1W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 107.1W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 13.4N 107.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 13.3N 107.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 13.1N 107.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 13.1N 108.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 13.8N 108.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 14.7N 109.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 16.5N 111.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 18.0N 112.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 107.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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