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Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Advisory Number 8
2020-10-07 16:46:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 07 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 071446 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 1500 UTC WED OCT 07 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 107.1W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 20SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 107.1W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 107.1W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 14.1N 107.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 10NE 10SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 14.0N 107.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 13.9N 107.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 13.8N 107.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 14.1N 108.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 14.9N 109.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 16.5N 111.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 17.5N 112.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 107.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Norbert Graphics
2020-10-07 10:49:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 07 Oct 2020 08:49:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 07 Oct 2020 08:49:12 GMT
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Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-10-07 10:48:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Oct 07 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 070848 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Norbert Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 300 AM MDT Wed Oct 07 2020 Norbert has weakened as entrainment of dry air has disrupted the compact system. The center was partially exposed overnight, but recent infrared imagery shows a new burst of deep convection near the center. Microwave imagery and ASCAT scatterometer wind data indicated the center had drifted southwest from its previous position, as the storm is beginning to meander within the weak steering flow. The initial intensity has been lowered to 35 kt based on the recent ASCAT-A overpass that showed a peak wind of 33 kt, as well as a T2.5 Dvorak estimate from TAFB. The intensity forecast for Norbert remains tricky given its small circulation and the presence of dry air in the surrounding environment. Sea-surface temperatures are more than sufficient for at least modest strengthening, but the question will be whether Norbert can survive the increased southeasterly shear that the SHIPS guidance calls for during the next 24-48 h. If so, Norbert may remain a tropical storm through the next 5 days. Alternatively, the shear and additional bouts of dry air entrainment could weaken the system to a depression or even a remnant low late in the forecast period. While small intensity changes due to diurnal fluctuations in convection are certainly possible, the official NHC forecast keeps Norbert's intensity forecast at 35 kt in consideration of the mixed signals noted in the latest intensity guidance. As previously mentioned, the center of Norbert has drifted to the southwest overnight. The storm is expected to remain nearly stationary over the next couple of days as distant Hurricane Delta over the northwestern Caribbean Sea has weakened the ridge that had been steering Norbert. Therefore, the forecast track through 48 h is more uncertain than usual given the potential for erratic motion as indicated by the diverging model solutions. By Friday, Norbert should begin moving slowly westward or west-northwestward as the ridge gradually builds to the north. The NHC track forecast remains fairly close to the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 14.0N 107.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 13.9N 107.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 13.9N 107.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 14.0N 107.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 14.0N 108.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 09/1800Z 14.1N 108.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 14.6N 109.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 15.5N 111.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 12/0600Z 16.5N 112.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm Norbert (EP4/EP192020)
2020-10-07 10:46:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NORBERT WEAKENS OVERNIGHT AS DRY AIR IMPACTS THE COMPACT SYSTEM... As of 3:00 AM MDT Wed Oct 7 the center of Norbert was located near 14.0, -107.1 with movement SW at 1 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Norbert Public Advisory Number 7
2020-10-07 10:46:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Oct 07 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 070846 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Norbert Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 300 AM MDT Wed Oct 07 2020 ...NORBERT WEAKENS OVERNIGHT AS DRY AIR IMPACTS THE COMPACT SYSTEM... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.0N 107.1W ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norbert was located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 107.1 West. Norbert is drifting toward the southwest near 1 mph (2 km/h). The storm is forecast to meander or remain nearly stationary over the next couple of days. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in strength will be possible during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Stewart
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