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Summary for Tropical Storm Norbert (EP4/EP192020)
2020-10-07 04:34:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NORBERT'S INTENSITY HOLDS STEADY AS IT STALLS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 9:00 PM MDT Tue Oct 6 the center of Norbert was located near 14.5, -106.9 with movement NNW at 1 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Norbert Public Advisory Number 6
2020-10-07 04:34:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Tue Oct 06 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 070234 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Norbert Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 900 PM MDT Tue Oct 06 2020 ...NORBERT'S INTENSITY HOLDS STEADY AS IT STALLS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 106.9W ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norbert was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 106.9 West. Norbert is moving toward the north-northwest near 1 mph (2 km/h). The storm is forecast to meander or remain nearly stationary over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Modest strengthening is possible over the next day or so. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Berg
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Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-10-07 04:34:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 07 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 070233 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 0300 UTC WED OCT 07 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 106.9W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 1 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 106.9W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 106.9W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 14.6N 107.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 14.7N 107.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 14.7N 107.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 14.7N 107.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 14.8N 108.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 15.2N 108.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 16.0N 110.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 16.5N 112.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 106.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BERG
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Tropical Storm Norbert Graphics
2020-10-06 22:35:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 06 Oct 2020 20:35:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 06 Oct 2020 21:39:14 GMT
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Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-10-06 22:34:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Oct 06 2020 065 WTPZ44 KNHC 062034 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Norbert Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 300 PM MDT Tue Oct 06 2020 A compact central dense overcast with cloud tops occasionally cooling to -80 degrees C has persisted over the center of Norbert throughout the day. A recent ASCAT overpass showed peak winds of 41 kt near the center of storm. However, due to the small size of the cyclone, the highest winds are likely not being sampled. Therefore, the initial intensity is being raised to 45 kt, and this is in good agreement with the latest Dvorak CI values from TAFB and SAB. Norbert is expected to remain in an environment of low vertical wind shear while over very warm waters for the next couple of days. Despite the positive environmental factors in the near term, model guidance is in poor agreement on the future intensity of Norbert. The spread in the forecast intensity has widened even further today, with most of the global and hi-resolution dynamical models weakening the system over the next few days, while the SHIPS and LGEM guidance favor slow strengthening. Since the SHIPS guidance has been the most accurate for Norbert's intensity thus far, the latest NHC forecast is close to, but just below the SHIPS guidance values through 48 h. After 48 h, the shear is expected to become moderate, and there are indications that subsidence will increase over the cyclone. These negative environmental factors should inhibit further intensification, and could cause the cyclone to weaken. The steering currents around Norbert are collapsing, as the mid-level ridge over southern Mexico dissipates in response to Hurricane Delta over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Model tracks diverge by a few hundred miles in varying directions while the steering flow is weak. The consensus guidance is in between these solutions and shows very little movement for the next 72 h. By late this week, a weak mid-level ridge should build north of the cyclone, which would result in a slow west-northwestward to westward motion. The latest NHC track forecast remains close to the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 14.4N 106.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 14.5N 106.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 14.5N 106.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 14.5N 106.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 14.5N 106.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 09/0600Z 14.5N 107.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 14.8N 108.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 15.5N 110.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 11/1800Z 16.0N 112.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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